摘要
目的探讨多层感知器(MLP)模型在中医人格、体质预测糖尿病性冠心病患病风险中的预测效能,为该病客观化预测提供新方法。方法采用单因素Logistic回归进行变量筛选,筛选有统计学意义的中医人格、体质类型指标,作为MLP及多因素Logistic回归的分析变量,以构建中医人格、体质对糖尿病性冠心病患病风险的预测模型。采用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC曲线)比较2种模型的预测效能。结果 MLP预测模型的灵敏度OR95%CI=0.915(0.862,0.968)、特异度OR95%CI=0.846(0.793,0.912)、AUC OR95%CI=0.913(0.806,0.987),均优于Logistic回归预测模型[灵敏度OR95%CI=0.834(0.695,0.953)、特异度OR95%CI=0.762(0.623,0.901)、AUC OR95%CI=0.869(0.730,0.941)]。结论在中医人格、体质对糖尿病性冠心病患病风险的客观化预测中,MLP模型较Logistic回归模型具有更好的预测效能。
Objective To explore the prediction efficiency of multilayer perception(MLP)model in prediction of diabetes mellitus(DM)complicated with coronary heart disease(CHD)by TCM personality and constitutions;To provide a new method for objective prediction.Methods This research utilized single factor logistic regression to filter out variables,which were significant factors of TCM personality and constitutions as analytic variables for MLP and multivariate logistic regression to establish TCM prediction model of personality and constitutions for DM complicated with CHD.The prediction efficiency of the above models were tested by receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC curve).Results The sensitivity,specificity and AUC of MLP were0.915(0.862,0.968),0.846(0.793,0.912)and0.913(0.806,0.987)respectively,which was better than the logistic regression,while these indexes of logistic regression were0.834(0.695,0.953),0.762(0.623,0.901),and0.869(0.730,0.941)respectively.Conclusion The MLP model is better than logistic regression model in prediction of DM complicated with CHD by TCM personality and constitutions.
作者
吕航
杜渐
刘媛
王昊
LV Hang;DU Jian;LIU Yuan;WANG Hao(Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, Nanjing 210023,China;China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing 100700, China;Jiangsu Provice Hospital on Integration of Chinese and Western Medicine, Nanjing 210028, China)
出处
《中国中医药信息杂志》
CAS
CSCD
2017年第12期88-91,共4页
Chinese Journal of Information on Traditional Chinese Medicine
基金
国家自然科学基金青年基金(81403501)
北京市自然科学基金面上项目(7172249)
北京市自然科学基金预探索项目(7163236)
北京中医药科技发展资金项目(JJ2015-50)
中国中医科学院中医药"一带一路"合作专项(ZZ-10-018-04)
关键词
糖尿病性冠心病
中医人格
中医体质
多层感知器模型
人工神经网络
预测模型
diabetes mellitus complicated with coronary heart disease
TCM personality
TCM constitutions
multilayer perception model
artificial neural network
prediction model
