摘要
雾霾污染治理是京津冀协同发展需要解决的重大问题。2013年9月颁布的"大气污染防治行动计划(大气国十条)"明确提出了京津冀地区雾霾治理目标,各地区也制定了雾霾污染治理的政策措施。本文旨在环境承载力分析的基础上评估雾霾治理的政策效果。首先,分析了京津冀地区大气环境污染特征,并结合相关文献确定京津冀地区雾霾治理的主要影响因素为污染物排放、风力以及相邻地区的传输效应等;其次,将影响PM_(2.5)浓度主要因素进行统计建模,并采用分位数回归模型进行矫正,大大提高模型的拟合精度;再次,基于大气国十条规定的京津冀各地区的PM_(2.5)年均浓度目标计算各地区的大气环境承载力;最后,在假定风力等气象条件不变的情况下,根据大气国十条规定的京津冀地区的污染物排放量利用统计模型模拟2017年的雾霾污染水平,模拟除张家口、承德和秦皇岛以外其余10个地区年均浓度60μg/m^3和70μg/m^3目标下PM_(2.5)日均浓度发生频率的变化情况,评估和讨论大气国十条提出的京津冀雾霾治理目标。结果表明:按照大气国十条减排计划的京津冀地区污染物排放量普遍高于其PM_(2.5)浓度目标下的大气环境容量(邯郸市除外),即大气国十条所规定的减排措施难以实现既定的PM_(2.5)浓度目标;PM_(2.5)年均浓度目标从60μg/m^3上升到70μg/m^3,重污染天气发生频率上升有限,大气污染物的减排量却显著下降。因此,要实现既定的雾霾浓度控制目标,天津和河北需要进一步加大污染物减排力度;雾霾治理应注重减少重污染天气的发生频率,治理重点应转向重度雾霾发生频率较高的冬季污染物排放控制;在科学确定环境承载力的基础上,确定切实可行的PM_(2.5)浓度控制目标,制定具有可操作性的污染物减排计划。
Haze control is a major problem that the Beijing Tianjin Hebei(Jing Jin Ji)cooperation development must solve.The‘Air Pollution Control Action Plan(APCAP)’promulgated in September,2013pointed out the haze control objectives of Jing Jin Ji,and each region also formulated a series of pollution control policies and measures.Therefore,the purpose of this paper is to evaluate the policy effect of haze treatment based on environmental carrying capacity.First of all,the characteristics of atmospheric environmental pollution in Jing Jin Ji is analyzed,and the main influencing factors of haze control is determined-the pollutant emission,wind and the transmission effect of adjacent areas on the basis of relevant literature.Next,a statistical model of the influence factors of PM2.5concentration is established,and corrected using the quantile regression model to improve the fitting accuracy of the model.And then,the atmospheric environmental capacity of the Jing Jin Ji is calculated based on the APCAP.Finally,in the context of wind power is constant,we simulate the haze situation of2017by the statistical model on the basis of the emission of pollutants which is regulated by the APCAP,and the change of the occurrence frequency of PM2.5daily concentration under the target of60μg/m3and70μg/m3in10regions(Zhangjiakou,Chengde and Qinhuangdao excepted),and discusses the haze control targets of the Jing Jin Ji.Results show that,the pollution emissions under emission standards of the APCAP is much higher than the atmospheric environmental capacity under the target of PM2.5,when the average concentration of PM2.5increases from60μg/m3to70μg/m3,the frequency of heavy pollution rises a little and the emission reduction of pollutant decreases significantly.Tianjin and Hebei need to step up efforts to reduce emissions to achieve the reduction target of the average concentration of PM2.5.Haze governance should pay attention to reduce the frequency of heavy pollution weather,and focus to pollutant emission control under the condition
作者
石敏俊
李元杰
张晓玲
相楠
SHI Min-jun;LI Yuan-jie;ZHANG Xiao-ling;XIANG Nan(School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese of Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;Department of Public Policy, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China;School of Economics of Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第9期66-75,共10页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目"中国经济绿色发展的理论内涵
实现路径与政策创新"(批准号:15ZDC006)
国家社会科学基金重点项目"空间经济学理论模型及在中国的应用"(批准号:13AZD082)
关键词
环境承载力
京津冀
雾霾污染
分位数回归
PM2.5浓度目标
environmental carrying capacity
Beijing Tianjin Hebei region
haze pollution
quantile regression
PM2.5 concentration target
