摘要
利用现有的几类人口预测模型构建成一个人口预测的优化模型,并对深圳市未来几年常住人口进行预测应用。结果表明,2014年的深圳市常住人口预测值为1 087.03万人,相对误差仅为0.008 48。预测优化模型不仅提高了人口预测精度,降低了预测误差,还克服了单一预测模型在人口预测中的缺陷。
An optimal model of population prediction was constructed with several existing population prediction models utilized and was used to predict the resident population in Shenzhen in the next few years.The results showed that the prediction of Shenzhen resident population were about 1 087.03 in 2014.Its relative error was only 0.008 48.The model could improve the prediction accuracy,reduce the prediction error,and overcome the single forecast model defects in the population prediction.
作者
高德宝
朱焕
Gao Debao;Zhu Huan(College of Sciences,Heilongjiang Bayi Agricultural University,Daqing 163319)
出处
《黑龙江八一农垦大学学报》
2017年第1期140-143,共4页
journal of heilongjiang bayi agricultural university
基金
大庆市指导性科技计划(szdfy-2015-47)
关键词
曲线拟合
人口预测
常住人口
预测优化模型
curve fitting
population prediction
resident population
optimal prediction model
