摘要
全球能源消费目前仍以化石能源为主,但非化石能源,特别是可再生能源发展较快。全球化石能源资源总体充裕,但生产成本变化较大;能源消费增速较低,油气市场供需宽松,油气价格很可能长期处于较低水平。我国能源消费已渡过过高增长期,进入调整转型期。主要矛盾变为常规能源过剩,优质低碳能源发展受阻。全球能源发展方向将受到环境和气候变化因素的重大影响,逐步转向以非化石能源为主,低碳化发展趋势日益明确。节能降耗仍然是优先领域,节能政策和能效技术发展迅速。我国"十三五"能源增速和消费总量可能将低于预期,新形势下仍然要继续坚持节能优先,推动能源消费革命;要分担环境治理和碳排放压力,加快能源产业调整;要认真实施能源领域的供应侧结构性调整,防止盲目投资,进一步调整投资方向;要继续推动天然气和各种非化石能源快速发展,加快能源向绿色低碳方向的结构性调整。
Currently, global energy consumption is still based on fossil energy, but non-fossil energy, renewable energy inparticular is under rapid development. Global fossil energy resources are generally adequate but production cost varies significantly.Energy consumption growth is slowed down thanks to the balance between the oil and gas market supply and demand. Oil pricesare likely to fluctuate at low levels on a long-term basis. Following a high growth stage, China’s energy consumption now entersinto an adjustment and conversion stage.The surplus of conventional energy and the hurdle for development of high-qualitylow-carbon energy are the main contradictions. The direction of global energy development will come under influence of theenvironment and climatic changes, gradually turning to non-fossil energy. The low-carbon development trend becomes clearer andclearer day by day. Energy saving and reduction of energy consumption remain as the priority area. The energy saving policies andenergy efficiency technology are under rapid development. China’s energy growth rate and its total energy consumption are likelyto be lower than expected during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. The priority should be continually given to energy saving underthe new situation, promoting energy consumption revolution. It is necessary to share the pressure of environmental treatment andcarbon emission while acceleratingenergy industrial adjustment, implement structural adjustment in the energy sector in preventionof blind investment and further adjust the investment direction, continually promote rapid development of natural gas and variouskinds of non-fossil energy, and accelerate the structural transition of energy to green and low carbon directions.
作者
周大地
Zhou Dadi(Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing 100038, China)
出处
《石油科技论坛》
2016年第5期1-8,19,共9页
PETROLEUM SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FORUM
关键词
化石能源
非化石能源
环境
气候
节能减排
低碳化发展
产业调整
fossil energy
non-fossil energy
environment
climate
energy saving and reduction of emission
low-carbon development
industrial adjustment
