摘要
通过构建长江三角洲流域多区域CGE模型,模拟了2011年水污染对长江三角洲流域内部地区(上海、流域内浙江、流域内江苏)造成的间接经济损失.并且构建间接影响系数来反映流域内不同区域和行业受水污染的间接波及程度.研究结果表明:水污染对流域内区域的经济影响差异明显,从GDP绝对值减少量来看,上海GDP损失最大(161.3亿元),但从GDP百分比变化来看,流域内浙江损失更为显著(2.84%);上海经济对长江三角洲流域水污染最为敏感,其间接经济损失将是其直接经济损失的3.5倍左右,而流域内江苏、流域内浙江仅为0.92倍和1.98倍.
Taking Yangtze River Delta Basin as an example, indirect economic impacts of water pollution in 2011 onsub-regions (Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu) were simulated based on a basin scale multi-regional computable generalequilibrium (CGE) model. Moreover, an indirect effect coefficient (IDE) was been built to reflect the degree of indirecteffect of water pollution on each sub-region and sector. The results indicated that economic impacts of water pollution hadsignificant differences in three sub-regions of Yangtze River Delta Basin. The loss in GDP in Shanghai was the highest(16.13 billion Yuan), whereas the ratio of GDP loss in Zhejiang decreased most significantly (2.84%). In addition, the IDEof Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu were 3.47, 1.98 and 0.92 respectively, which means that the economy of Shanghai wasmost sensitive to water pollution occurred in the Yangtze River Delta Basin than other two regions.
作者
张伟
刘宇
姜玲
王金南
吴文俊
毕军
ZHANG Wei;LIU Yu;JIANG Ling;WANG Jin-nan;WU Wen-jun;BI Jun(State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Environmental Planning and Policy Simulation, Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, China;State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control & Resource Reuse,School of Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China;Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;School of Government, Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081, China)
出处
《中国环境科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第9期2849-2856,共8页
China Environmental Science
基金
水利部公益专项(201201073)
水专项(2012ZX07601002)
重点研发计划(2016YFA0602500)
国家自然科学基金(91325302)
关键词
水污染
长江三角洲流域
多区域CGE模型
间接经济损失
water pollution
Yangtze River Delta Basin
multi-regional CGE model
indirect economic loss
