摘要
以黄山风景区为案例地,基于1998-2012年15年间的水资源与旅游发展相关数据,运用集对分析法,从扰动性和应对能力两个层面建立评价指标体系,对其年际及月际水资源系统安全态势进行评价。结果表明:①15年间,黄山风景区年际水资源系统安全性综合指数总体处于中等水平,并呈现逐年上升趋势;②月际水资源系统安全性平均指数虽总体也处于中等水平,但存在月际差异,大体呈"双峰双谷"型;③年际系统安全性与扰动性指数、应对能力指数呈现出显著的正相关关系。月际系统安全性则与扰动性指数、应对能力指数呈现出负相关关系。应对能力强弱对年际水资源安全性具有重要作用,对月际系统安全性调节具有局限性。④水资源潜力、旅游发展、用水效率和纳污能力共同构成了系统安全的扰动要素,资金收入与投入、技术与道德措施形成了系统的应对能力,但各因子作用强度、性质不同。
The security assessment of water resources system is the key basis for water resources management and regulation.By choosing the disturbance and response capabilities as the evaluation factors,this study built the water resource security evaluation index system.First,the main evaluating indicators are determined,including the water resources,tourism development,social economic,environment aspects.Then,using the water resources and tourism development datasets over the period of 1998-2012,this paper presented an empirical analysis of water resource security evaluation in Huangshan resort,combined with the method of set pair analysis.Results show that:(1) The interannual variation of the security index presents an increasing tendency,rising from 0.4158 in 1998 to 0.5826 in 2012 at its medium level.From the point of view of evaluation factors,a disturbance index showed a slowly upword trend and response capacity increased rapidly.These changes of the disturbance and response capabilities are the underlying cause of water resources security improvement in Huangshan resort.(2) The monthly variation of the security index has the pattern of'double peaks and two valleys'at its medium level.But there are monthly difference,especially October has extreme insecurity.The monthly variation of water resources system is mainly affected by disturbance factors.Thus,monthly water supply and sewage treatment capacity are not sufficient enough to improve the security of the water resource system.(3) The interannual variation of the security index with disturbance and response capabilities exists a strong positive correlation.However,the monthly variation of the security index with disturbance and response capabilities exists a negative correlation.The interannual variation of the security index with response capabilities shows high consistency,but response capabilities can not change the monthly variation of the security index.(4) The potential of water resources,tourism development,water use efficiency and pollutant capacity consti
出处
《地理研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第6期1059-1072,共14页
Geographical Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41201149)
关键词
水资源系统
安全评价
集对分析
山岳型旅游地
黄山风景区
water resources system
security assessment
set pair analysis
mountain resorts
Huangshan
