摘要
针对输电线路电阻估计困难,致使输电线路运行温度难以精准把握的问题,提出通过建立半参数平差模型实现对输电线路温度稳定估计的想法。在分析影响输电线路温度估计精度因素的基础上,根据量测方程间的耦合关系,提出两步估计的方式,对电阻估计值进行精细化处理;考虑电阻变化的迟缓性,建立线性量测方程,将未知误差作为待估参数,建立半参数平差模型;继而,分析了模型中的关键参数——平滑因子β及正则化矩阵M的选取规则及方法。由此,提高了输电线路温度估计的精度以及估计值的稳健性,为软动态热定值技术的应用提供基础。以山东仿曹220kV输电线路的实测数据为例,对该方法与传统最小二乘估计模型进行了对比分析,验证了所提方法的可行性与有效性。
In view of the difficulty in obtaining accurate transmission line temperatures due to fluctuation in transmission line resistance estimation,a semi-parametric adjustment model is developed to realize robust estimation of transmission line temperatures.Based on an analysis of the factors influencing the estimation results of transmission line temperatures and the correlation between measuring equations,a two-stage estimation method for precisely estimating the resistance value is proposed.Considering the retardation in resistance changes,a semi-parametric adjustment model is developed,in which the linear equation is adopted with unknown errors as parameters to be estimated.Furthermore,the choice of the smoothing parameterβ and regular matrix M is accounted for.Hence,the accuracy and stability of the transmission line temperature estimation is improved,which provides a firm basis for the application of soft dynamic thermal rating (DTR).Finally,based on the measured data of 220 kV Fangshan-Caocheng transmission line in Shandong Province,the semi-parametric model is compared with the traditional least square model.The result shows that the method proposed is valid and practicable.
出处
《电力系统自动化》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第21期81-86 112,112,共7页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
基金
山东省自然科学基金资助项目(ZR2013EEL005)
山东省优秀中青年科学家科研奖励基金资助项目(BS2013DX046)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51407111
50677036)~~
关键词
电力系统
输电线路
温度估计
软动态热定值
半参数模型
power system
transmission line
temperature estimation
soft dynamic thermal rating(DTR)
semi-parametric model
