摘要
可再生能源出力的不确定性导致含多个分布式电源的虚拟电厂收益波动。文中以某云南风/光/水分布式发电示范工程为例,基于投资组合理论基本思想,提出将虚拟电厂可再生能源出力随机性映射到一般投资组合模型考虑价格随机性的思路,建立了考虑多个可再生能源发电电源不确定性的容量配置模型。在单一时段容量配置模型基础上,进一步分析了考虑可再生能源出力偏差惩罚及多时段容量配置问题。算例表明,所提出的模型有效考虑了各类可再生能源发电的互补性,为分析可再生能源发电批复电价、备用价格、风险偏好、可再生能源发电电源相关性等对虚拟电厂电源配置的影响提供了定量依据。
Output uncertainties of renewable energy distributed generators lead to profit fluctuation of a virtual power plant. Take a wind/photovoltaic/hydropower distributed power generation demonstration project in Yunnan Province as an example. Based on the basic concept of the portfolio,it is proposed to have the output uncertainty of a virtual power plant mapped onto the price uncertainty.On the basis of a single period capacity allocation model,another two models are developed considering the penalty for output deviation and multi-period capacity allocation,respectively.Numerical examples show that the proposed model is effective in quantitatively analyzing the allocation problem by considering the complementary role among multi renewable energy distributed generators,the electricity prices,the reserve price,and risk preference.
出处
《电力系统自动化》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第19期75-81,共7页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
基金
国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)资助项目(2012AA050204)~~
关键词
可再生能源发电
虚拟电厂
不确定性
容量配置
投资组合
renewable energy generation
virtual power plant
uncertainty
capacity allocation
investment portfolio
