摘要
生育率下降是世界各国现代人口发展的一个基本特征，这种人口现象既被视为社会现代化和经济发展的必然结果，同时也被看作是促进发展中国家社会和经济发展的必要前提，是摆脱“马尔萨斯均衡陷阱”的跳板。但是，生育率下降与经济增长（发展）的关系十分复杂，特别是在我国生育率转变具有鲜明的外生性特征的条件下，生育率下降引致的积极经济后果更不能自动地生成，而需要相应的社会和经济条件进行催化。因此，制度和政策因素对于我国生育率下降积极经济后果的生成具有重要的影响，研究建立我国生育率下降积极经济后果实现的决策支持系统将十分必要。
A major evolution of the modern populations of the world is fertility decline, which is viewed as both an inevitable consequence of social modernization and economic development and a necessary precondition for extricating the developing countries from the Malthusian Trap. However, the complex relationship between fertility decline and economic development particularly in the context of the exogenous fertility transition in China makes the positive economic consequences of fertility decline unable to generate automatically but be catalyzed by relevant social and economic conditions. Therefore, institutional and policy arrangements are very important to generating the positive economic consequences of fertility decline in China, thus making it necessary the research of establishing the decision making support system for achieving the positive economic consequences of fertility decline in China. Li Jianmin is director and professor, Institute of Population and Development Research, Nankai University.
出处
《人口研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2000年第1期22-27,共6页
Population Research
基金
国家自然科学基金
