摘要
本文基于CLHLS调查与2010年第六次人口普查数据,采用简单比例法预测2015—2075年我国65岁及以上失能老人的社会化养老服务需求,结果表明,在未来40年内,我国的失能老年人口规模将逐年增大。到2055年,具有机构照护和社区照护需求的失能老人将分别达到366.60万人和13185.73万人,护理人员需求数量将分别在84.79万—107.27万人和2907.44万—3645.25万人,较2015年增幅达1倍以上,处于历史峰值。然而,由于我国养老服务发展起步较晚,机构养老与社区养老服务供给尚存在较大的供需缺口、行业认可度低等问题,未来发展压力较大。
This article uses scaling method to predict the social care needs of the disabled over 65 in China during 2015-2075 on the basis of CLHLS data and the sixth census in 2010.The results show that:by 2055,the number of disabled elderly with institutional care and community care needs will reach 3,666 thousand and 13,1857.3 thousand,respectively,nursing staff demand will be between847.9-1,072.7 thousand and 29,074.4-36,452.5 thousand.Compared with2015,the social care needs will increase more than 1 times which is at historic peak.Because of China’s social care service of elderly started late,there still exist a big gap between supply and demand and low recognition,so our country is facing more and more pressure on future in developing this industry.
作者
周晓蒙
刘琦
Xiao-meng ZHOU;Qi LIU(Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian116025,China;Peking University,Beijing100871,China)
出处
《产业组织评论》
CSSCI
2017年第2期86-109,共24页
Industrial Organization Review
基金
2017年中国科协高端科技创新智库青年项目——“全面两孩”政策背景下老年人长期照护市场的“供求缺口”分析(DXB-ZKQN-2017-023)
关键词
失能老人
机构照护
社区照护
Disabled Elderly
Institutional Care
Community Care
