摘要
本文通过分析各国利率市场化改革的经验,总结出三种主要的改革模式,即市场驱动型、政府激进型和政府渐进型改革模式。基于中国利率改革的进程,中国的利率市场化改革应该属于政府渐进型模式。在此基础上,本文将未来我国利率改革划分为四个阶段,并利用16家上市银行的数据对相关阶段银行业所受影响进行实证分析,发现上述四个阶段中,短期存款利率放开对银行业的冲击最大,因此应该最后逐步实现,以降低改革成本。为了更好地适应利率市场化改革,商业银行应该测算利率市场化后续改革措施可能的冲击影响,加快业务结构转型。
Based on the experience analysis of the liberalization reform of the interest rate in different countries,this paper sums up three reform models,which are market-driven,government-radical and government-progressive.Considering the process of Chinese interest rate reform,it should be the government-progressive model.In the paper,the Chinese reform of interest rate is divided into four stages,and the impacts on banking industry during the relevant stages are empirically analysed based on the data of 16 listed banks.It is found that,in the above four stages,the liberalization of interest rate of short-term deposits impacts the banking sector the most,so it should be implemented in the final phase to reduce the cost of reform.In order to adapt to market-oriented reform of interest rate,commercial banks should measure the impacts of the following measures of the liberalization reform of interest rate and accelerate business restructuring.
出处
《金融论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第2期49-57,共9页
Finance Forum
关键词
利率市场化
市场驱动型改革
政府激进型改革
政府渐进型改革
商业银行
liberalization of interest rate
market-driven reform
government-radical reform
government-progressive reform
commercial bank
