摘要
金融景气与企业扩张风险存在着客观内在的逻辑关联。本文运用时差相关分析法将金融景气监测指标分为先行、同步、滞后三类,并构建金融景气扩散指数和合成指数,据此对金融动态景气发展趋势进行分析。运用灰色关联分析法,探索金融景气先行指标和企业扩张风险指标的相关关系,构建行业扩张风险判别模型,并对20家大型房地产企业进行实证检验,进行企业扩张风险预警定位分析,最后针对房地产企业扩张中的经营、投资、融资活动风险提出相应的防控路径。
There exists objective and inherent logical relationship between financial prosperity and enterprise expansion risk. This paper divides financial prosperity monitoring indicators into leading indicators, coincident indicators and lagging indicators with the method of time difference correlation analysis; constructs diffusion index(DI)and composite index(CI) of financial prosperity; accordingly analyzes the dynamic development trend of financial prosperity; applies the method of gray correlation analysis to explore the correlation between leading indicators of financial prosperity and enterprise expansion risk indicators; constructs discrimination model of industry expansion risk. Moreover, this paper conducts the empirical test on 20 large real estate enterprises; operates positioning analysis on enterprise expansion risk early-warning. And it comes up with corresponding prevention and control paths for expansion risks in operating, investment and financing activities of real estate enterprises.
出处
《财会月刊（中）》
北大核心
2015年第3Z期3-9,12-16,共12页
finance and accounting monthly
关键词
金融景气监测
企业扩张
投融资匹配
风险预警
Financial Prosperity Monitoring
Enterprise Expansion
Investment and Financing Matching
Risk Early-warning
