摘要
特朗普经济政策溢出效应显著,这些溢出或表现为美国国际资本流动和美元汇率的变化,或通过美国国际资本流动和美元汇率传递,因此把握政策冲击对两者的影响,是分析美国政策溢出的重要途径。本文构建SVAR模型分析经济基本面、政策冲击、贸易赤字和国际大宗商品价格对美国国际资本流动和美元汇率的影响。结果表明:对美国国际资本流动和美元汇率冲击最大的是贸易赤字和国际大宗商品价格,其次是政策冲击,经济基本面的冲击则相对较小。基于此本文建议:及早预判、积极应对美国经济政策的溢出影响;通过加强国际合作弱化中美贸易战对我国经济的冲击;稳健发展国际大宗商品衍生品市场,弱化价格波动对我国经济的影响。
Spillover of Trump＇s economic policy is remarkable, which would manifest the international capital flows and the dollar exchange rate fluctuation, or transmit through the international capital flows and the dollar exchange rate fluctuation.Therefore, it is an important approach to analyze the policy overflow by grasping the policy impact on both the international capital flows and exchange rate. This paper constructs the SVAR model to analyze the impact of economy, policy, trade deficit and international commodity prices on the international capital flows and dollar exchange rate. We result that trade deficit and international commodity prices have the biggest impact on the international capital flows and dollar exchange rate, the secondary factor is the policy impact, and the impact of economy is relatively small. It is suggested that we should anticipate and actively respond to the spillover of American economic policies, Strengthen international cooperation to weaken the impact of trade war on our economy. and steadily develop the international commodity derivatives market and weaken the impact of price fluctuations on our economy.
作者
刘少华
Liu Shaohua(Yinchuan Central Sub- Branch, the People＇s Bank of China)
出处
《金融发展评论》
2018年第7期146-158,共13页
Financial Development Review
关键词
政策冲击
SVAR模型
国际资本流动
汇率影响因素
Policy Impact
SVAR Model
International Capital Flows
Exchange Rate Influencing Factor
