摘要
利用江西泰井高速公路沿线交通气象观测站以及附近自动站、国家站观测资料,分析了泰井高速道路结冰的时空分布特征,研究了道路结冰与气象因素的关系,分析其关键影响因子,并建立预报模型。结果表明:泰井高速每年都出现了道路结冰的情况,出现时间集中在11月至次年3月份,2011年开始呈明显减少的趋势,尤其是2015年出现最少,这与超级厄尔尼诺引起的暖冬有关。当日最低气温一般都要达到0℃左右,而且最低地表气温一般要降到1℃以下,才足以达到结冰条件;道路结冰还与降水量有关,降水量越大越不易发生结冰,而微量的降水或10 mm以下的降水最容易产生结冰。泰井高速公路道路结冰预报模型检验的准确率为77. 5%,在预报应用中的效果也较为理想。
Based on the meteorological data from automatic weather stations along the Taijing expressway,automatic weather station data and conventional observation data nearby, the temporal and spatial distributions of road icing are analyzed, and the relationship between meteorological conditions and road icing is discussed. A forecasting model of road icing on the Taijing expressway is estab- lished by studying the key impact factors. The results show that road icing appeared every year on the Taijing expressway and mainly occurred from November to March of next year. It reduced gradually from 2011 ,especially in 2015,which was related to the warm winter caused by Super E1 Nino. The atmospheric temperature was usually below 0 ℃ and the road surface temperature was usually below 1 ℃ when road icing occmwed. Precipitation is also important to road icing, while heavy rain is not easy to road icing and precipitation less than 10 mm is most likely to cause road icing. The fox,casting model on road icing on the Taijing expressway is effective in applications,with the accuracy of 77.5%.
作者
吴凡
阙志萍
WU Fan;QUE Zhiping(Meteorological Service Center of Jiangxi,330046,Nanchang,PR)
出处
《江西科学》
2018年第6期995-999,共5页
Jiangxi Science
基金
江西省气象局青年项目"江西泰井高速公路道路结冰特征及其气象条件预报预警研究"(20150013)
