摘要
基于Kriging法,利用GEOSTUDIO软件中的SLOPE/W模块,结合蒙特卡罗模拟法,对下游坝坡的稳定可靠度进行分析。Kriging法相比于蒙特卡罗法,所需数据量少,计算量低,计算效率高。利用Kriging法对坝坡参数相关性进行分析时,参数的正相关性对坝体稳定性不利,参数的负相关性对坝坡稳定性更有利。利用Kriging法对坝坡参数变异性进行分析时,随着变异系数的增加,下游坝坡的失效概率逐渐增加,可靠度指标逐渐减小,参数变异性越大,对坝体的稳定性越不利。
Based on the Kriging method, and combined with the monte carlo simulation method, the paper analyzes the stability reliability of the dam slope downstream by using the SLOPE/W module of GEOSTUDIO software. Comparing with the monte carlo simulation method, the Kriging method need fewer data, smaller calculated amount and has high efficiency. The correlation of parameters of the dam slope is analyzed by using the Kriging method, the positive correlation of parameters has unfavorable influence on the dam stability, and the negative correlation of parameters has favorable influence on the dam stability. The variability of parameters of dam slope is analyzed by using the Kriging method, the failure probability of dam slope downstream increased with the increase of the variability coefficient, and the reliability decreased. The unfavorable influence on the stability of the dam increased with the increase of the variability coefficient.
出处
《东北水利水电》
2018年第12期47-49,64,共4页
Water Resources & Hydropower of Northeast China
