摘要
首先构建了随机逼近水生态环境管理模型(SRAWM)。该模型不仅可以处理目标函数和约束条件中的常规随机变量,也可以处理主观与客观模糊变量。其次,将模拟技术融入SRAWM模型框架内,同时考虑了区域经济发展与水生态环境改善、水资源开发利用、经济社会发展、水土流失、水污染防治等之间的矛盾与协调关系。最后,选择黄河下游位山引黄灌区为典型,针对不同水环境政策,对灌溉面积、水量配置、缺水量、污染消减、水土保持、生态效应,以及灌溉效益进行了优化计算。研究结果对于调整灌区灌溉模式和生态环境保护策略,协调处理灌溉效益和灾害损失关系,提高风险防控能力,促进经济社会发展等具有十分重要的理论意义和实用参考价值。
Based on uncertainty stochastic data in the typical Yellow River Irrigation Region,a stochastic approximation water eco-environment model（ SRAWM） is set up firstly.The model can not only handle conventional stochastic variations in objective functions or constraints,but also tackle objective and subjective（ i.e.,risk performance of the decision maker） fuzziness.The various factors including drought,water deficit,land deterioration,soil erosion and water pollution are taken seriously in the developed model.Secondly,simulation technique（ i.e.,support vector regression） is put into SRAWM framework to reflect dynamic prediction of water demand in the future.Finally,Weishan Yellow River Irrigation District is taken as a typical example.Results of optimized irrigation area,water allocation,water deficit,pollution reduction,water and soil erosion and system benefit under various water environmental policies（ corresponding to various ecological effects） are obtained.It is proved by practice that the present findings would play an important role in facilitating the local decision makers to rectify the current irrigation patterns and ecological protection polices,compromise systematic benefits and failures,generate a robust risk-control plan under uncertainties,and achieve conjunctive goals of socio-economic development and eco-environmental sustainability.
作者
周科
徐苏容
ZHOU Ke1, XU Su-rong2(1. North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power; Zhengzhou 450011, China; 2. Henan Vocational Technology College of Construction,Zhengzhou 450007, China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2018年第11期139-144,共6页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(50579020)
关键词
随机逼近
水生态环境
模型研究
灌区管理
stochastic approximation
water ecological environment
model construction
irrigation management
