摘要
In recent years, the Chinese economy has been facing downward pressure from slowing growth, but there has not been a significant rise in the registered/surveyed unemployment rate. The combination of these factors shows yet again that Okun＇s law does not fit China. Based on empirical observation of the relationship between China＇s economic cycle and its 1 abor market transition, we put forward a broader version of Okun＇s law which is applicable to analyses of the Chinese transition. The specific applications of the broad version of the law are connected with stages of economic development. The standard Okun model, which includes only the unemployment variable, is suited to developed countries in which labor transfer is complete. The broader version of Okun＇s law, which is applicable to transitional economies, introduces a variable for the transfer of agricultural labor. Using Chinese and cross-country panel data, we find that, compared with long-term trends, short-term changes in the transfer of agricultural 1 abor are significantly correlated with the economic cycle. This finding broadens our understanding of the general pattern of the relationship between the labor market and the economic cycle and provides scientific support for employment policy adjustments that takes ＂new urban jobs and the surveyed unemployment rate as an important indicator of macro-adjustment and control.＂
近年中国经济面临增速放缓的下行压力,然而登记和调查失业率均未出现显著上升,这个组合现象再次凸显奥肯定律在中国＂水土不服＂。基于对中国宏观经济周期与劳动市场转型关系的经验观察,提出适用于分析中国转型情况的广义奥肯定律。广义奥肯定律的具体适用形态与经济发展阶段有关。仅包含失业率变量的标准奥肯模型,适用于已完成劳动力转移的发达国家。适用于更多转型经济体的广义奥肯定律,还应加入农业劳动力转移变量。利用中国和跨国面板数据的分析发现,农业劳动力转移相对其长期趋势的短期变动与宏观经济周期涨落有显著联系。这一发现拓宽了对劳动力市场与宏观经济周期变动关系的一般形式的理解,为＂将城镇新增就业、调查失业率作为宏观调控重要目标＂的就业政策调整提供了学理支持。
