摘要
根据云南省2003—2016年的统计年鉴等相关资料,利用面板数据模型,分析干旱灾害对云南省农产品价格变化的影响,并提出可行建议,以期为云南省农业的可持续发展和科学决策提供借鉴。结果表明,干旱灾害的频繁发生,是导致云南省农产品价格变化的最主要因素,且干旱灾害对农产品价格具有显著的制约作用。此外,云南省年平均降水量每减少100 mm,全省农产品价格降低11.23%,并且在不同的地州,这种影响程度大不相同,即不同的地州抵抗干旱灾害影响农产品价格变动的能力大不相同,其中能力最强的是西双版纳自治州,最弱的是临沧市。
According to relevant documents such as 2003-2016 statistical yearbooks of Yunnan Province, the author analyzes the impact of drought on the change of agricultural products price by panel data model, and proposes some feasible suggestions, in order to provide a reference for decision-making in the sustainabledevelopment of agriculture. The results indicated that the frequent occurrence of drought was the mostimportant factor for the change of agricultural products price in Yunnan Province, and drought also restrictedthe price of agricultural products significantly. In addition, the price of agricultural products across YunnanProvince would decrease by 11.23% if the average annual precipitation reduced by 100 mm, and the impactdegree in different regions varied a lot, meaning that different regions had different resistance abilities to theimpact of drought concerning the change of agricultural products price, with Xishuangbanna Autonomous Prefecture ranking the first whereas Lincang City ranking the last.
作者
杨雪晴
Yang Xueqing(School of Business Administration,Hohai University,Changzhou Jiangsu 2!302)
出处
《中国农学通报》
2018年第24期95-100,共6页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
关键词
农产品价格
干旱灾害
云南省
面板数据
agricultural products price
drought disaster
Yunnan Province
panel data
