摘要
基于2004～2016年金砖经济体的数据,采用横截面方差分解法,将外汇储备库因素引至方差分解模型中,考察不同外汇储备库规模下金砖经济体的风险分担程度及福利变化,实证研究发现,当前外汇储备库规模下,金砖经济体所实现的风险分担程度较低,但伴随着外汇储备库规模的扩大,其风险分担程度大幅度提升;金砖经济体已实现的福利收益甚微,仍存在较大的潜在福利上升空间。因此,金砖经济体应适时增加成员国,逐步扩大外汇储备库规模,以更好发挥外汇储备库风险分担的作用。
Based on the data of the BRICS economies in 2004-2016, the cross-sectional vafiance decomposition method was employed and the foreign exchange reserve factor was intro- duced to the variance decomposition model to investigate the risk sharing extent and welfare changes in the BRICS economies under different search findings showed that the extent of risk foreign exchange reserve sizes. The empirical resharing realized in the BRICS economies was low under the current foreign exchange reserve sizes. However, as the size of the foreign exchange reserve increased, the extent of risk sharing increased significantly. The welfare income realized in the BRICS economies was very small and there was still room for potential welfare increase. Therefore, the BRICS economies should promptly increase the number of member countries and gradually expand the size of their foreign reserves in order for foreign exchange reserves to play a better role in risk sharing.
作者
薛伟
陈奉先
Xue Wei;Chen Fengxian(School of Finance,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China)
出处
《金融经济学研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第5期49-60,81,共13页
Financial Economics Research
基金
国家社科基金青年项目(15CJY081)
北京市教委社科计划一般项目(SM201610038002)
北京市属高校青年拔尖人才培育计划项目(CIT&TCD201704100)
关键词
外汇储备库
风险分担
福利收益
金砖经济体
foreign exchange reserve
risk sharing
welfare income. BRICS economies
