摘要
研究目的:实证检验地方政府土地供给结构对区域房价的影响。研究方法:在分析土地供给结构影响房价机理的基础上,提出本文的研究假说;基于广东省21个地级及以上城市2009—2015年的统计数据,运用面板数据模型加以检验。研究结果:土地供给结构显著影响房价水平,静态和动态面板数据模型估计表明住宅用地供给比例提高1%,房价分别下降0.126%和0.103%;基础设施用地供给比例提高1个百分点,房价分别上升0.062%和0.051%;工业用地供给比例提高1个百分点,房价则分别上升0.116%和0.110%。地方政府财政压力在土地供给结构与房价的因果链条中起到重要的调节效应,即财政压力越大的地区,提高住宅用地供给比例对房价的抑制效果微弱,而基础设施和工业用地供给比例的增加则对房价的抬升效应更大。研究结论:为抑制过快上涨的房价,保障城市居民住有所居,在加快土地供给侧结构性改革,优化土地供给结构,加大住宅用地供应的同时,也应深化财税体制改革,使地方政府对土地财政的依赖逐步向持有环节的房地产税转变,以降低财政压力对土地供给侧结构性改革抑制房价过快上涨的扭曲效应。
The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the impacts of land supply structure of local government on the housing price. The methods employed are that based on the mechanism analysis, we propose a hypothesis, and then we use the panel data of 21 municipal-level cities of Guangdong province from 2009 to 2015 and the panel data model to test the hypothesis. The results show that the land supply structure has a significant impact on the housing price. The static and dynamic panel data model show that the residential land supply ratio increases by 1%, while the housing price falls by 0.126% and 0.103%, respectively. The infrastructure land supply ratio increases by 1%, while the housing price increases by 0.062% and 0.051%, respectively. The industrial land supply ratio increases by 1%, while the housing price increases by 0.116% and 0.11%, respectively. The financial pressure of local government plays an important regulatory role in the causal chain of land supply structure and housing price. In regions where the financial pressure is greater, the effect of the increasing supply ratio of residential land on the housing price decrease is less, while the the increasing proportion of the infrastructure and industrial land supply will have a greater effect on the housing price increase. Therefore, in order to curb the rapid rise of housing price and protect the urban residents＇ living rights, we must accelerate the structural reform of the land supply side, optimize the land supply structure and increase the supply of residential land. And we should deepen the fiscal and taxation system reform to gradually shift local governments＇ dependence on land finance to real estate taxes as well as to reduce the distortion effect against the structural reform of the land supply side led by fiscal pressure.
作者
余亮亮
蔡银莺
YU Liangliang;CAI Yinying(School of Public Administration,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641,China;College of Public Administration,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China)
出处
《中国土地科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第8期30-36,共7页
China Land Science
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(18YJC790208)
广东省自然科学基金自由申请项目(2018A030313404)
中国博士后科学基金(2017M622705)
广州市哲学社科"十三五"规划2017年度马克思主义理论与实践专项课题(2017GZMZYB11)
关键词
土地经济
土地供给结构
房价
财政压力
土地财政
土地引资
land economy
land supply structure
housing price
financial pressure
land finance
land-motivated investment
