摘要
强劲的东亚外向型经济发展模式对世界贸易和经济发展贡献巨大,但在接下来的时期里,东亚出口增长的可持续性、产业升级的方式以及贸易政策对东亚贸易格局的影响至关重要,然而上述因素却存在较大的不确定性,并且更重要的是需要明确中国和日本在东亚贸易格局中扮演什么样的角色。经分析中日在东亚各经济体贸易结构中的地位与作用,发现东南亚各国对中国贸易依存度渐趋提高,中国在东亚地区贸易的影响力逐步提升;中国高技术产品出口在贸易结构中的比重显著提高,但这并不必然意味着中国自主高技术产业发展已经成熟,日本高技术产品出口份额的下降也不必然意味着日本高技术产业发展滞后于其他国家;中日之间在政治上的冲突与经济上潜在的竞争关系,导致日本将更多具有技术含量零部件的生产置于中国以外的其他各国,这似乎也是以日本为核心的"雁行产业模式"向"后雁行产业模式"转变的关键原因;中国成为东亚地区对美国最终产品进出口贸易的主要平台,在外部总需求不足背景下,最大贸易顺差国地位对中国经济发展并不有利。
The strong East Asian export - oriented economic development model has contributed greatly to the development of world trade and economy. However, in the following period, the sustainability of East Asian export growth, the way of industrial upgrading and the impact of trade policies on the East Asian trade pattern are important factors for economic development for East Asian area, but there is a greater un- certainty about what role China and Japan play in East Asian trade market. With examining the trade structure of China and Japan in East Asia this paper discovers Southeast Asian countries~ dependence on China＇s trade is gradually increasing, China＇s influence in East Asian trade is gradually increasing. The proportion of China^s high- tech product exports has increased significantly, however, it does not necessarily mean that the development of China^s independent high - tech industry has matured, while, the decline in the share of Japan＇s high - tech products does not necessarily mean that the development of high - tech industries in Japan lags behind other countries. Disputes between China and Japan in political field and potential competitive relationship in economy lead Japan to place more production of technical parts in other countries instead of China. This explains why ＂ flying geese industrial paradigm＂ which was with Japan as core shifted to the ＂ post flying geese industrial paradigm＂. China has become the main importer and exporter of the United States in East Asia for final products. In the background of lack of external total demand, the status of the largest trade surplus country is not favorable for China^s economic development.
作者
庞德良
王博
PANG Deliang A;WANG Bo B(A.Center for Northeast Asian Studies,Jilin University,Changchun,Jilin,130012,China;B.Northeast Asian Studies College,Jilin University,Changchun,Jilin,130012,China)
出处
《现代日本经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第6期20-32,共13页
Contemporary Economy OF Japan
基金
教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目"中日韩国家关系新变化与区域合作战略"(16JJDGJW006)
关键词
日本
贸易结构演变
产业内贸易
进口替代战略
雁行模式
Japan
trade structure evolution
intra - industry trade
import substitution strategy
flying geese paradigm
