摘要
本文利用我国120家商业银行2003—2015年度面板数据,分析了银行去杠杆化的时间、主要方式及对其经营稳定性的影响。研究发现,第一,我国银行业有49%的银行在3年内完成去杠杆调整,去杠杆最大幅度的中位数为5年。第二,去杠杆进程降低了银行信贷供给速度,提高了债务融资成本与资产收益率。对比产权来看,资本补充能力强的国有控股银行去杠杆幅度更大,而中小银行去杠杆化的方式与渠道都比较有限。第三,长期来看,去杠杆进程降低了银行破产概率,提高了银行稳定性,但短期内动态面板估计表明,银行去杠杆会显著降低下一期的经营稳定性,相反的,利用留存收益、发行次级债务等主动式去杠杆则会降低信贷风险,提高银行稳定性。模型调节效应表明,外部货币政策与银行自身流动性状况都弱化了去杠杆对其经营稳定性的影响。
Using the panel data of 120 commercial banks in China from 2003 to 2015, this paper analyzes the influence of commercial bank deleveraging on its operating stability. The conclusions are as followed.（1） 49% of banks in China have completed the process of deleveraging in 3 years, and the median deleveraging time frame is 5 years.（2） Deleveraging reduces the speed of bank credit supply, and raises the cost of debt financing and return on assets. In comparison with the property rights, the State-owned holding banks with strong capital replenishment are more leveraged, while the way of deleveraging of small and medium-sized banks is limited.（3） In the long run, the deleveraging process reduces the probability of bankruptcy and improves the robustness of the banking operations. However, the panel model estimation results show that bank deleveraging will significantly reduce the operation stability of the next period in short term. On the contrary,the use of retained income, issuing subordinated debt and other active deleveraging will reduce credit risk and improve bank stability. The interaction effect of dynamic panel model shows that the monetary policy and the bank＇s own liquidity condition weaken the influence of deleveraging on its operating stability.
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第10期55-64,共10页
Studies of International Finance
基金
国家社科基金重点项目"网络舆情影响下的金融系统性风险度量与预警研究"(17ATJ005)
湖南省教育厅项目"宏观审慎监管与货币政策银行风险承担传导研究"(15C0764)
湖南省高校科技创新团队支持计划资助
关键词
去杠杆化
杠杆率监管
债务融资成本
银行稳定性
Monetary Policy
Bank Credit Transmission
Debt Financing Costs Leverage Regulation
