摘要
本文利用2006-2015年31个省份的面板数据研究老龄化程度持续加深是否导致财政负担加剧。首先构造跨期迭代模型发现,老龄化对财政可持续性的影响与老龄人口负担的所得税率有关,当所得税率低于临界值时,老龄化率提高会对财政可持续性产生负面影响;而当所得税率高于临界值时,老龄化率提高会对财政可持续性产生正面影响。因此,以老年人相对工资水平为门槛变量,进一步建立面板门槛模型进行实证研究,结果表明,老龄化对财政可持续性的影响并非简单线性,而是存在非线性的门槛效应,并且区域差异明显。延迟退休的直接效应是通过增收减支来提高财政可持续性,然而更重要的是,延迟退休通过延长老年人的工作时长来拓展其创造的生产价值,并通过提高老年人收入水平来增加老年人缴纳的所得税,间接促进财政可持续性。
Based on China＇s 2006—2015 panel data of 31 provinces,this article studies whether the deepening of aging will result in increasing financial burden. Firstly this article builds an intertemporal iteration model and finds that the impact of aging on fiscal sustainability is related to the rate of income taxation borne by older people. When the rate of income taxation falls below a certain critical point,population aging is harmful to fiscal sustainability; when the rate of income taxation exceeds the certain critical point,population aging has a positive influence on fiscal sustainability. So,this article regards relative wage level as threshold variable and conducts the empirical research by building a panel threshold model. The result shows that the influence of aging on fiscal sustainability is not linear,there exists non-linear threshold effect and significant regional differences. The direct effect of delaying retirement is increasing fiscal sustainability by enhancing the level of income and reducing expenditure simultaneously. But more importantly,it increases the value of production old people created by extending their length of work. At the same time,delaying retirement increases income tax they pay by enhancing their level of income and indirectly promotes fiscal sustainability.
作者
魏瑾瑞
夏宁潞
陈子昂
Wei Jinrui;Xia Ninglu;Chen Ziang
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第10期81-88,共8页
Statistical Research
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目"大数据背景下我国失业率水平的多维测度与动态修正研究"(15CRK017)
辽宁经济社会发展一般项目"辽宁劳动
就业领域供给侧结构性改革研究"(2018lslktyb-032)的资助
关键词
老龄化
门槛效应
延迟退休
财政可持续性
区域差异
Population Aging
Threshold Effect
Retirement Delay
Fiscal Sustainability
Regional Differences
