摘要
我国经济进入新常态,经济发展速度下行会影响各地区城市化进程。在此背景下本文以安徽省1997-2017城市化以及经济发展数据,基于协整分析定量研究安徽省城市化水平与经济增长之间的互动关系,研究表明:安徽省城市化与其经济增长之间为显著的正相关关系,城镇化率的提高可以明显的带动其经济增长率的提升,经济增长率的提升可以带动城镇化率的提升,但是城镇化率的提升对经济增长率的影响程度大于经济增长率提高对城镇化率提升的影响程度;而脉冲分析表明:城市化水平的提升对当期经济增长水平的提升影响程度较大,之后会影响程度会逐渐减弱,而经济发展水平的提升对城镇化的影响程度随着时间的增长逐渐加大,最终会趋于稳定。
Chinese economy has come to the new normal. The downward pace of economic development will affect the urbanization process in various regions. In the context, the paper makes a quantitative study with co-integration analysis of the interaction between urbanization and economic growth in Anhui province with the urbanization and economic development data from 1997 to 2017 of Anhui province. The study indicates there is a significant correlation between urbanization and economic growth in Anhui. The increase of urbanization can significantly promote the economic growth rate, and vice versa. However, the effect of urbanization on the economic growth is bigger than the latter on the former. The pulse analysis shows that the increase of urbanization has great positive effect on the economic growth in during the urbanzing period. Later on, the effect will decrease gradually with the time. However, the positive effect of economic growth on urbanization will gradually increase with the time and finally become stable.
作者
李圣荣
LI Sheng-rong(Party School of Ma＇anshan Municipal Party Committee,Ma＇anshan,Anhui,243000,China)
出处
《武汉商学院学报》
2018年第4期38-42,共5页
Journal of Wuhan Business University
关键词
城市化水平
经济增长
协整分析
脉冲函数
urbanization level
economic growth
co-integration analysis
pulse function.
