摘要
生育率的变动对我国的人口老龄化正在产生滞后影响,江苏省的生育率变动受生育政策的影响尤为明显,这种影响具有延时特征,影响人口老龄化的应对决策。以政府公布的权威人口数据为依据,量化分析了基于生育政策调整的生育率变动对江苏省人口老龄化的影响;测算发现江苏省因为提倡一孩政策而少出生了518. 87万人,加快了该省的老龄化速度,加深了老龄化程度;而始于2014年和2016年的生育政策调整对江苏省老龄化起到一定的缓解作用,但是作用有限。测算结果显示,2018—2050年江苏省老年人口总量呈现增长趋势,2021—2030年增速较快,到2029年该省60岁以上老年人口比重将超过30%,到2050年老年人口比重将达到37. 44%,接近老龄化高峰极限,届时该省老年人口数将达到2 746. 89万人。随着人口老龄化程度的加剧,江苏省80岁以上的高龄老人和失能老人比重都将大幅上升,意味着老年人口的服务需求和规模随之扩大,需要政府提前制定积极应对人口老龄化的预案。
The aging population of China is lagging behind the fertility rate change brought about by the fertility policies, which is prominent in Jiangsu Province, and it affects the decision-making to cope with the aging population. Based on the authoritative demographic data published by the government, the impact on the aging of the population by fertility changes in Jiangsu Province was analyzed. It is estimated that in jiangsu province, 5. 1887 million births were lost because of the one-child policy, which accelerated the aging of the province including the speed and degree of aging; and the fertility policies which began in 2014 and 2016 alleviate the aging of Jiangsu Province, but its effect is limited and delayed. Theestimating results show that the total elderly population in Jiangsu Province will present an increasing tendency from 2018 to 2050, and the growth will be rapid between 2021 and 2030. By 2029, the proportion of the elderly population over the age of 60 will exceed 30%. By 2050, the proportion of the elderly population will be higher, and it will reach 37. 44%, which is close to the peak. By then, the number of elderly people will surpass 27. 6689 million. With the development of the population aging, the proportion of elderly people at 80 and above and those who are incapacitated will increase significantly. This means that the elderly care and services should be prepared. An in-depth understanding of the lag effect of fertility changes on population aging can help us develop a plan to actively respond to the problem of population aging.
出处
《人口与社会》
2018年第5期3-17,共15页
Population and Society
关键词
生育政策
生育率
人口预测
人口老龄化
人口滞后效应
fertility policy
fertility rate
population forecast
population aging
delay effect of popula-tion
