摘要
运用EGARCH模型,从信息经济学角度对山东省六种主要畜产品的价格波动进行实证分析。研究结果表明:生猪、仔猪、猪肉、牛肉、羊肉和鸡蛋的价格收益率序列显著偏离正态分布,存在波动集聚现象,即畜产品大的价格波动后面会连着大的价格波动、小的价格波动后面会连着小的价格波动。这意味着在一定程度上畜产品价格波动是可以预测的;鸡蛋价格波动的持续性和聚集性最强,生猪价格波动的持续性和聚集性最弱;信息对畜产品价格波动的影响显著,且表现为明显的非对称性;消费者和生产者对信息的反应不同,生产者对正向信息较为敏感,消费者对负向信息更敏感。
Using EGARCH model, the price fluctuation of six major animal products in Shandong Prov- ince was analyzed from the perspective of infommtion economics. The results showed that the distribution of the price yield sequence of pig, piglet, pork, beef, mutton and egg was significantly deviated from nomml distribution, and there is a phenomenon of volatility cluster. That was to say, the large price fluctuation of animal products would be attached to a large one, while the small fluctuation would be attached to a small one. To some extent, it meant that the livestock product price fluctuation could be predicted. The fluctuations in the price of eggs had the strongest continuity and clustering, while that of live pigs had the weakest continuity and clustering. The effect of infommtion on price fluctuation of animal products was remarkable, and it showed ob- vious asymnmtrey. Consumers and producers reacted differently to infommtion. Producers were sensitive to pos- itive infommtion, while consumers were more sensitive to negative information.
作者
闫冰心
林基霖
赵瑞莹
Yan Bingxin;Lin Jilin;Zhao Ruiyin(College of Economics and Management,Shandong Agricultural University,Taian 271018,China;Shandong Institute of Socialism,Jinan 250399,China)
出处
《山东农业科学》
2018年第10期162-166,共5页
Shandong Agricultural Sciences
基金
山东省现代农业产业技术体系羊创新团队资助项目(SDAIT-10-11)
山东农业大学"双一流"奖补资金资助项目畜牧产业经济(SYL2017XTTD16)
