摘要
目的探讨2016年湖北省手足口病的空间分布特征及时空聚集性。方法采用趋势面分析、空间自相关和空间扫描方法对2016年湖北省手足口病监测的县(市、区)级层面数据进行时空统计分析。结果趋势面分析得出湖北省2016年手足口病发病率自西向东、由南向北均呈轻微"U"形;全局自相关发现2016年湖北省手足口病发病呈空间正相关(Moran′s I=0.278,P=0.001);局部自相关分析表明,手足口病高值聚集区和热点区域主要集中在东南部地区,包括大冶市、黄州区、铁山区、下陆区、黄石港区、鄂城区、梁子湖区和华容区等区。通过空间扫描统计得到2个有统计学意义的手足口病高发病率聚集区域,聚集时间为4—7月,聚集地区为湖北省西北部及东南部。结论湖北省手足口病存在时空聚集性,应以此为指导,确定手足口病的重点防控区域,优化卫生资源配置。
Objective To explore the spatial distribution and spatial-temporal clustering of hand, foot and mouth disease（HFMD） in Hubei province in 2016. Methods Trend surface analysis, spatial autocorrelation and spatial-temporal scanning analysis were conducted to understand the spatial-temporal distribution of HFMD at county/district level in Hubei. Results Trend analysis showed that an U-type curve could be used to describe the HFMD distribution from the south to the north and from the west to the east in Hubei. A positive autocorrelation of HFMD spatial distribution was observed in 2016（Moran′s I=0.278,P=0.001）. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the highly clustered and hot spot areas were in southeastern Hubei, including Daye, Huangzhou, Tieshan, Xialu, Huangshigang, Echeng, Liangzihu and Huarong. Two statistically significant HFMD clusters, which occurred in southeastern and northwestern Hubei from April to July, were identified by spatial-temporal scan statistics. Conclusion Obvious spatial-temporal clustering of HFMD was found in Hubei. It is necessary to conduct targeted HFMD prevention and control in the key areas identified and improve the allocation of public health resources.
作者
刘天
陈红缨
姚梦雷
黄淑琼
黄继贵
毛安禄
杨雯雯
Liu Tianl;Chen Hongying;Yao Menglei;Huang Shuqiong;Huang Jigui;Mao Anlu;Yang Wenwen(Jingzhou Prefectural Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jingzhou 434000,Hubei,China;Hubei Provineial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Wuhan 430000,Hubei,China)
出处
《疾病监测》
CAS
2018年第8期653-658,共6页
Disease Surveillance
基金
湖北省卫生计生委疾控专项(No.WJ2016JT-002)
湖北省荆州市2017年卫生科技计划(No.2017130)~~
关键词
手足口病
空间自相关
时空扫描
趋势面分析
Hand
foot and mouth disease
Spatial autocorrelation
Spatial-temporal scan
Trend surface analysis
