摘要
为探究地铁系统脆弱性的影响因素及其相互作用关系,从人-机-环-管四要素角度分析影响地铁系统脆弱性的因素,构建地铁系统脆弱性影响因素体系;运用网络层次分析法(ANP)构建地铁系统脆弱性影响因素体系ANP结构模型;使用Vensim_PLE软件建立基于ANP-SD的地铁系统脆弱性仿真模型,模拟不同方案对地铁系统脆弱性的影响趋势。结果表明:(1)合理增加安全投入,有利于地铁系统脆弱性的减少;(2)运营环境、人的安全意识和设施设备状态是影响地铁脆弱性的最主要因素;(3)ANP-SD模型能较好反映地铁系统脆弱性各影响因素之间的非线性和反馈关系。
In order to explore the factors that affect the vulnerability of subway system and their interactions,this paper analyzes the factors influencing the vulnerability of subway system from the perspective of the four elements of man-machine-environment-management,constructs the influencing factor system and uses the network analytic hierarchy process（ ANP） to build the ANP structural model of the influencing factor system. Vensim PLE software is used to establish the simulation model of the vulnerability of subway system based on ANP-SD,and simulate the impact of different schemes on the vulnerability of subway system. The results show that：（ 1） Reasonable increase of safety investment is conducive to the reduction of the vulnerability of subway system;（ 2） The operating environment,people＇s safety consciousness and equipment condition are the most important factors affecting the vulnerability of subway system;（ 3） The ANP-SD model can better reflect the non-linearity and feedback relationship between various influencing factors of the vulnerability of subway system.
作者
郝倩雯
郭庆军
贾哲
HAO Qian-wen;GUO Qing-jun;JIA Zhe(School of Civil and Architecture Engineering,Xi＇an Technological University,Xi＇an 710021,China)
出处
《铁道标准设计》
北大核心
2018年第10期118-123,共6页
Railway Standard Design
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究课题(17YJC630032)
