摘要
为有效防控城市供热管线泄漏爆炸事故,在事故树分析(FTA)和事件树分析(ETA)的基础上开展了城市供热管线泄漏风险研究,得到了导致供热管网泄漏的基本事件组合,分析了系统的结构重要度、临界重要度、概率重要度系数对供热管网泄漏的影响,得到了顶上事件发生概率;通过事件树分析得到供热管网泄漏的主要后果,在此基础上建立了基于蝴蝶结模型(Bow-tie)的潜在危险因素及后果分析图,并提出了针对性的预防和控制措施,为城市供热管网的安全管理提供参考依据。
In order to effectively prevent and control the leakage and explosion accidents of urban heating pipelines, this paper studied the leakage risk of urban heating pipeline on the basis of the accident tree analysis （FTA） and the event tree analysis （ETA）. The basic event combination that leads to the leakage of the heating network is obtained. The influence of the structure importance, critical importance and the probability importance coefficient on the leakage of the heating network is analyzed, and the occurrence probability of the top event is obtained. The main consequences of the leakage of the heating network are obtained by the event tree analysis. The potential risk factor and consequences analysis diagram are established based on the bow-tie model. The suggestions for preventive measures are proposed, which provides a solid reference for the safety management of urban heating network.
作者
张继信
邢雪
高建村
张樱凡
ZHANG Jixin;XING Xue;GAO Jiancun;ZHANG Yingfan(Department of Safety Engineering,Beijing Institute of Petrochemical Technology,Beijing 102617,China;Beijing Academy of Safety Engineering and Technology,Beijing 102617,China)
出处
《北京石油化工学院学报》
2018年第3期59-64,共6页
Journal of Beijing Institute of Petrochemical Technology
基金
北京市教委科技计划项目(KM201810017011)
2018年安全生产重特大事故防治关键技术科技项目(Beijing-0017-2018AQ)
北京市大学生创新创业计划和URT项目资助(2017J00070)
北京市优秀人才培养资助项目(2016000020124G059)
关键词
城市供热管线
事故树
事件树
风险研究
city heating pipe network
fault tree analysis
event tree analysis
risk analysis
