摘要
区域产业用水需求驱动效应测度及空间分异分析涉及社会经济、科学技术、生态环境及行政管理等多方面因素,是制定产业结构与用水结构调控方案、最大程度地将最严格水资源管理制度落到实处的一项基础性工作。以山东省为例,为科学阐述全省17个地市历史年份产业用水需求变化不同因子的驱动效应及空间分异特征,基于扩展的Kaya恒等式将产业用水驱动效应分解为经济水平、水资源禀赋条件、水资源开发利用水平、人口规模、产业结构及用水效率6类驱动效应,进而采用LMDI因素分解模型量化不同因素的驱动效应贡献程度,并结合基于加速遗传算法的ISODATA聚类模型对不同因子驱动效应进行空间分异分析,由此绘制了山东省17个地市产业用水变化不同因子驱动效应的GIS空间分布图。结果表明:经济水平效应和用水效率效应是促使区域产业用水变化的两个主要因素,其相对贡献率均值分别为39. 93%、-109. 55%,对产业用水变化分别具有正向增量驱动效应和反向减量驱动效应。上述研究成果在一定程度上阐明了山东省近年来产业结构与用水结构之间的协同演变机制,可为制定和实施最严格水资源管理模式下的产业结构与用水结构适应性协同发展策略提供科学的决策依据。
Measurement of driving effects and analysis of regulation mechanism for regional industrial water utilization, involving the fsctors of social economy, science and technology, ecological environment and administration, is the basic work for establishing the regulation schemes of industrial structure and water utilization structure, and implementing the Most Strict Water Management Policy （MSWMP）. Taking Shandong province for an example, in order to scientifically describing the driving effects and spatial variation characteristics of the factors affcoting the regional industrial water utilization of historical years in 17 cities of Shandong province, firstly, the driving effcots are decomposed into effcots of economic level, water resource endowment, water resources development and utilization, population scale, industrial structure, and water utilization efficiency based on the extended Kaya identity ; then the fsctor decomposition model of LMDI is used to calculate the affecting degree of different fsctors; finally, the spatial variation characteristics and distribution map of GIS of the 17 cities for different driving factors of industrial water utilization are proposed using the ISODATA Fuzzy Cluster model in this paper. The results show that the effcots of economic level and water utilization efficiency, having positive incremental effect and inverse reducing effect respectively, are the most important fsctors for industrial water utilization, with the relative contribution rate of 39.93% and - 109.55%. The research results reveals the collaborative evolution mechanism between industrial structure and water utilization structure of Shandong province in recent years, and can provide scientifically decision basis for the formulation and implement of adaptive collaborative development strategies of industrial structure and water utilization structure in the mode of MSWMP.
作者
白夏
戚晓明
潘争伟
汪艳芳
BAI Xia;QI Xiaoming;PAN Zhengwei;WANG Yanfang(State Key Laboratory Base of Eco-Hydraulic Engineering in Arid Area,Xi＇an University of Technology,Xi＇an 710048,China;School of Mechanical and Vehicle Engineering,Bengbu University,Bengbu 233030,China)
出处
《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》
2018年第4期89-96,共8页
Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition
基金
安徽省高校自然科学研究项目(113052015KJ04)
关键词
用水结构
驱动因素
驱动效应
空间分异
Kaya恒等式
LMDI
山东省
water utilization structure
driving fsctor
driving eft＇cots
spatial variation
Kaya identity
LMDI
Shandong province
