摘要
基于2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年土地利用遥感监测数据,借助RS和Arc GIS技术,采用直接碳排放测算模型和灰色关联度模型分析了黄土高原地区农用地变化与碳排放的互动关系,并运用灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对2020—2040年农地利用碳排放进行了预测。结果表明:(1)2000—2015年黄土高原地区农地利用总面积呈现下降趋势,15年间农地利用总面积减少了79.11万hm2。(2)黄土高原地区农地利用碳排放总量呈现下降趋势,碳源主要产区为陕西省和甘肃省,碳汇主要产区为青海省。(3)黄土高原农地利用类型变化与农地利用碳排放灰色关联序为耕地>草地>未利用地>水域>林地。(4)2020—2040年的农地利用碳排放预测结果分别为312.857万t、308.82万t、304.835万t、300.902万t、297.019万t。
Based on the remote sensing monitoring data of land use in 2000,2005,2010 and 2015,with the aid of RS and Arc GIS technology,the direct carbon emission model and correlation degree model were used to analyze the interactive relationship between the change of agricultural land and carbon emissions in the Loess Plateau. Combining with the GM（ 1,1） model,the carbon emissions from agricultural land use from 2020 to 2040 were predicted. The results showed that：（1）The total area of agricultural land use in the Loess Plateau showed a downward trend,with a total land use area of 791100 hectares decreased.（2）Total farmland carbon emissions in the Loess Plateau decreased from 2000 to 2015,Gansu,the main producing areas of carbon sinks were Qinghai Province.（3）The gray correlations between the types of farmland utilization and the carbon emissions from agricultural land use in the Loess Plateau were arable land grassland unused land water area forest land.（4）The emission forecast results were respectively 3. 12857 million tons,3. 0882 million tons,3. 04835 million tons,3. 00902 million tons and 2. 97109 million tons.
作者
王剑
薛东前
宋永永
马蓓蓓
WANG Jian;XUE Dong-qian;SONG Yong-yong;MA Bei-bei(School of Geography and Tourism,Shanxi Normal University,Xi＇an 710119,China)
出处
《资源开发与市场》
CAS
CSSCI
2018年第9期1250-1255,共6页
Resource Development & Market
基金
国家科技基础性工作专项基金项目(编号:2014FY210100)
关键词
农地变化
碳排放
关联度
灰色预测
黄土高原
farmland change
carbon emission
correlation degree
gray prediction
Loess Plateau
