摘要
采用湖南省1981-2016年的地区生产总值数据为样本,利用VAR模型进行实证分析.研究发现湖南省的第一产业对其他两大产业的影响较小.而第二产业对湖南产业结构的影响明显,对第三产业的发展有明显的带动效果,但是对第一产业的反哺效应不大.第三产业发展非常快,促进了湖南产业结构升级.长期分析发现,湖南省经济增长的波动性比较大,产业结构在不断优化.
This paper uses VAR model to analyze the industrial structure of Hunan province based the data of 1981 201G years. The primary industry in Hunan has little influence on the other two industries. The second industry has an obvious influence on the industrial structure of Hunan. The second industry has an obvious driving effect on the development of the third industry. The feedback effect of the second industry on the primary industry is not obvious. The development of the third industry is very fast, which has pro moted the upgrading of Hunan＇s industrial structure. From the long term equilibrium analysis, it is found that the fluctuation of Hunan＇s economic growth is relatively large, and the industrial structure is constantly optimized.
作者
罗永恒
LUO Yong heng(Hunan University of Finance and Economics,Changsha 410205,China)
出处
《德州学院学报》
2018年第4期73-77,96,共6页
Journal of Dezhou University
基金
湖南省教育厅重点科研项目(16A036)
湖南省情咨询项目(201011BZZ99)
关键词
产业结构优化
反哺效应
地区生产总值
Optimization of industrial structure
Feeding effect
Gross Regional Product
