摘要
构建数理模型,探讨企业家才能系统性失灵形成产能过剩的机理及效应。(1)对外的市场预测才能失灵:企业家在投产阶段过高估计市场偏好导致企业在生产阶段出现产能过剩。(2)对内的成本控制才能失灵:企业家在投产阶段发生过高的投资成本迫使企业在生产阶段退出市场、沦为僵尸,加剧行业产能过剩。(3)企业家才能失灵的行业产能过剩效应:除产能利用率过低外,行业还出现僵尸企业、坏账、失业等一系列并发症。该理论:(1)揭示了企业家市场预测失误与成本控制失误导致产能过剩的单一机理及效应、综合机理及效应;(2)建立了企业家才能失灵与行业产能过剩在会计、统计指标上的因果关系和相关关系;(3)给出了可用于实证分析企业家才能失灵导致产能过剩的计量模型和检验规则。
A mathematical model is constructed to explore the mechanism and effect of excess capacity in the failure of entrepreneurship.（1） Market forecasting fail： entrepreneurs overestimate market preference in the establish stage,resulting in excess capacity in the production stage.（2） Cost control fail： the high investment cost in the establishment stage forces the enterprises to withdraw from the market and become zombies in the production stage, intensifying industry excess capacity.（3） Industrial excess capacity effect of the entrepreneurship failure： in addition to the low capacity utilization,the industry also has complications,such as zombie enterprises,bad debts,unemployment. The theory,（1） reveals the single mechanism and effect,comprehensive mechanism and effect of excess capacity caused by entrepreneurs＇ market forecast error and cost control error;（2） constructs the causal relationship and correlation between the failure of entrepreneurs and excess capacity in accounting and statistical indicators;（3） gives econometric models and test rules that can be used to empirically analyze the failure of entrepreneurship leading to excess capacity.
作者
徐齐利
XU Qi-li(School of Econonfics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Econonfics, Nanchang 330031, China)
出处
《北京社会科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第9期92-109,共18页
Social Sciences of Beijing
关键词
产能过剩
企业家才能
市场预测
成本控制
僵尸企业
excess capacity
entrepreneurship
market prediction
cost control
zombie company
