摘要
WTO和RTAs是驱动亚太一体化纵深发展的两个轮子,以亚太经济一体化的两条竞争性路径RECP和原TPP框架下的21国1996-2016年经验数据为样本,基于结构引力模型PPML估计研究WTO和RTAs对亚太区域内贸易的驱动机制。研究发现:WTO和RTAs分别使亚太区域内双边出口额平均增长约113.61%和23.99%;WTO对南南国家间和南北国家间贸易增长有显著的促进作用,双边出口额分别增长约216.14%和103.81%;对北北国家间贸易增长有显著的负面影响,在其影响下北北国家间双边出口额平均下降约94.41%;RTAs对南南国家间和北北国家间贸易增长没有显著的促进作用;但对南北国家间贸易增长影响显著,使双边出口额平均增长约48.14%。
WTO and RTAs are the two wheels that drive the deep development of the Asia-Pacific integration. Based on the empirical data of 21 member countries of RECP and original TPP,the study uses structural gravity model to estimate the trade effects of WTO and RTAs on Asia-Pacific Regional Trade. The study found that:(1) WTO and RTAs increase bilateral exports in Asia-Pacific area by an average of 113. 61% and 23. 99% respectively;(2) WTO has significant positive impacts on South-South and North-South bilateral trade growth,and significant negative impacts on North-North bilateral trade;(3) RTAs has no significant effects on South-South and North-North bilateral trade growth,but significant positive impacts on North-South bilateral trade growth.
出处
《亚太经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第4期17-25,149,共9页
Asia-Pacific Economic Review
基金
国家社科基金青年项目"国际投资规则的演变态势
影响及应对研究"(16CGJ005)
