摘要
目的:分析中国居民1987—2015年鼻咽癌死亡的时间变化趋势。方法:利用Joinpoint模型估算各人群(城市男性、城市女性、农村男性、农村女性)及各年龄组鼻咽癌死亡率的时间变化趋势,采用负二项回归模型分析鼻咽癌死亡在人群水平上的危险因素。结果:中国居民鼻咽癌年龄标化死亡率呈下降趋势,城市女性、农村女性、城市男性、农村男性中标死亡率平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)分别为–2.97%,–2.60%,–2.01%,–1.68%(P<0.05);城市居民在85岁以上死亡率无明显下降趋势,男性AAPC为–1.54%,女性AAPC为–0.60%(P>0.05);65岁以上农村男性截缩率无明显下降趋势(AAPC=–0.56%,P>0.05),农村女性在85岁以上死亡率无明显下降趋势(AAPC=1.17%,P>0.05);城市居民鼻咽癌的死亡风险是农村居民的1.11倍(P<0.01),男性是女性的2.34倍(P<0.01),每增加5岁死亡风险平均增大23%(OR=1.23,P<0.01),1987—2015年每过1年死亡风险平均减少2%(OR=0.98,P<0.01)。结论:中国居民鼻咽癌死亡率变化呈下降趋势,并且存在明显的性别、年龄差异;中国居民在85岁以上鼻咽癌死亡率无明显下降趋势。
Objective： To analyze epidemical features, distribution and time trend for nasopharynx cancer deaths in China from 1987 to 2015.Methods： Negative binomial regression model was used to explore population-level risk factors for nasopharynx cancer deaths and a joinpoint regression model was used to estimate annual changes in nasopharynx cancer mortality in various populations. Results： A falling trend in age-standardized nasopharynx cancer mortality rates was observed among Chinese residents with the average annual percent change （AAPC） at –2.97% among urban female residents and –2.60% among rural female residents （P〈0.05）, –2.01% among urban male residents, and –1.68% among rural male residents （P〈0.05）, respectively. It decreased yearly for urban male aged over 85 years with AAPC at –1.54% and the age-specific mortality rates decreased yearly for the urban female aged over 85 years with AAPC at –0.60%, the age-specific mortality rates decreased yearly for rural male residents aged more than 65 years with AAPC at –0.56% and for rural female residents aged more than 85 with AAPC at 1.17%, with no significant difference （P〈0.05）. The nasopharynx cancer deaths risks were higher in urban residents than those in rural residents （OR=1.11, P〈0.01）, and they were also higher in male residents than those in female residents （OR=2.34, P〈0.01）. A 5-year increment in age was associated with a 23% increase in nasopharynx cancer mortality （OR=1.23, P〈0.01） and a one year increment in calendar year was related to a 2% decrease in mortality （OR=0.98, P〈0.01）. Conclusion： There was a significant gender and age difference in a decreased trend of nasopharynx cancer mortality among Chinese residents in a long period; no increased trend was observed in the overall populations over 85 years old.
作者
刘晓雪
张志将
宇传华
LIU Xiaoxue;ZHANG Zhijiang;YU Chuanhua(Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School of Health Sciences,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430071,China)
出处
《中南大学学报（医学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第7期760-766,共7页
Journal of Central South University ：Medical Science
基金
国家自然科学基金(81641123
81773552
81273179)~~
关键词
鼻咽癌
死亡率
趋势
危险因素
nasopharynx cancer
mortality
trends
risk factors
