摘要
为揭示黑龙江省八五三农场降雨量的变化规律,利用农场近50a(1959-2010年)的月降水量,通过线性趋势分析法、滑动平均法、累积距平法、年际极值比、Mann-Kendall(M-K)突变检验法,分析了农场年降水量和季节降水量的变化趋势及其突变点。研究结果表明:(1)八五三农场的年降水量在研究时段内,总体上呈减少的趋势,且年际变化较显著;对于各季节降水量,夏季下降趋势比较明显,冬季上升趋势显著,春季和秋季基本无趋势变化;(2)M-K突变分析显示,年降水量突变趋势明显,存在1986年和1999年2个突变点;而该区域四季降水突变点较多,其中春季和冬季上升趋势明显,夏季和秋季的下降趋势较明显。
In order to discover the change rule of rainfall in 853 Farm of Heilongjiang Province,this paper used the monthly precipitation of the Farm in fifty years from 1959 to 2010,through the liner tend analysis method,sliding average method,accumulated anomaly method,interannual extreme value ratio and the Mann-Kendall（ M-K） mutation check method to analyze the change tendency and mutation points of annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation of the Farm. It appears that： 1） annual precipitation of the 853 Farm is in decreasing tend generally within the study phase,and outstanding of interannual change; for the precipitation in each season,decreasing relatively obvious in the summer,rising more outstanding in the winter,and there no tend changes basically in the spring and autumn; 2） M-K mutation analysis showed the mutation tendency is obvious of the annual precipitation,there are two mutation points in 1986 and 1999; however,there are many mutation points in this area in four seasons,of which,it rises obviously in spring and winter,and declined obviously in the summer and autumn.
作者
王秋媛
邢贞相
WANG Qiu-yuan;XING Zhen-xiang(Heilongjiang Provincial Heihe Hydrological Bureau,Heihe 164300,China;Water Conservancy and Architecture Institute of Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China)
出处
《黑龙江水利科技》
2018年第5期3-8,共6页
Heilongjiang Hydraulic Science and Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51109036
51179032)
教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20112325120009)
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201301096)
黑龙江省级领军人才梯队后备事头人资助项目(500001)
关键词
八五三农场
降水
趋势分析
突变分析
853 Farm
precipitation
analysis of tendency
mutation analysis
