摘要
目的利用GAM模型探讨苏州工业园区空气质量指数(AQI)与呼吸系统疾病日门诊量的关系。方法收集2016年1月1日—12月31日苏州市工业园区43个社区卫生服务站和5个社区卫生服务中心的呼吸疾病逐日门诊量、苏州市工业园区主要大气污染物(PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_2、NO_2、CO、O_(3~1)、O_(3~8))及气象资料,利用主要大气污染物计算AQI,使用半参数广义相加模型(GAM)分析2016年苏州市工业园区AQI与呼吸系统疾病日门诊量的关系。结果空气质量指数(AQI)对呼吸系统疾病的日门诊量产生一定的滞后效应,并且当日至前4 d(lag04)的移动平均值对人群的呼吸系统疾病日门诊量影响最为明显。在此最佳滞后条件下,AQI每升高一个四分位间距时,人群呼吸系统疾病日门诊量增加6.7%(RR=1.067,95%CI:1.061~1.074)。结论 AQI的上升将导致呼吸系统疾病门诊发病人数的增加,对人体呼吸健康会造成一定伤害。
Objectives To explore the relationship between the air quality index（AQI）and daily outpatient visits for respiratory diseases by using a GAM model.MethodsDaily outpatient visits for respiratory diseases in43 community health service stations and 5 community health service centers in Suzhou Industrial Park in January 1 to December 31,2016,meteorological data and major atmospheric pollutants（PM2.5,PM10,SO2,NO2,CO,O3-1,O3-8）in Suzhou Industrial Park were collected;AQI was calculated by using the concentration of major atmospheric pollutants;and the relationship between AQI and the outpatient visits for respiratory diseases was analyzed by using a semiparametric generalized additive model（GAM）.ResultsThere was a certain lag effect of air quality index（AQI）on daily outpatient visits for respiratory diseases,and the average of AQI 4 days before（lag04）had the most significant effect on the number of outpatients with respiratory diseases.Under this optimal hysteresis condition,the number of outpatients for respiratory diseases per day increased by 6.7%（RR=1.067,95%CI：1.061 to 1.074）for each increase of interquartile interval of AQI.Conclusions The increase of AQI would lead to an increase of outpatient visits for respiratory diseases and would cause some harm to the health of human respiratory system.
作者
朱小红
汪庆庆
徐萍
王司玮
臧黎慧
宋孜冰
王胜利
刘凤芝
李红美
ZHU Xiaohong1;WANG Qingqing3;XU Ping1;WANG Siwei1;ZANG Lihui1;SONG Zibing1;WANG Shengli1;LIU Fengzhi1;LI Hongmei2
出处
《环境卫生学杂志》
2018年第3期232-237,共6页
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HYGIENE
基金
苏州市“科教兴卫”青年科技项目基金(KJXW2016071)
防控大气臭氧和PM2.5联合暴露对人群健康危害研究(CXTDB20170212)
关键词
呼吸系统疾病
空气质量指数
日门诊量
半参数广义相加模型
respiratory disease
air quality index（AQI）
daily outpatient visits
semiparametric generalizedadditive model
