摘要
2016年7月长江中下游发生了区域性大洪水,上中游水库群联合调度,发挥了重要的防洪作用。洪水过后涝旱急转,长江中下游干流及"两湖"(洞庭湖、鄱阳湖)水位持续走低,9月份出现了历史同期严重枯水。为了探究此次枯水成因,总结经验规律,采用水量平衡法和水位流量关系曲线方法还原了2016年秋季枯水过程。对比分析发现,天然来水偏少和水库群拦蓄是导致长江中下游干流及两湖水位严重偏低的主要原因。此外,针对2020水平年投入运行的水库群规模将进一步扩大,汛末水库群蓄水对长江中下游来水的影响可能将持续加大且呈现常态化的现象,指出加强中长期水文预报技术与水库群联合蓄水研究是下一步的重点研究方向。
A regional extraordinary flooding occurred in the middle and lower Yangtze River in July 2016,during which reservoirs co-regulation played an important role in the flood protection. Serious drought occurred immediately after the flood and the water levels of the main stream of middle and lower Yangtze River and the two lakes( Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake) kept dropping,becoming a severe low water event in September compared with history data. In order to probe into the cause of the low flow and summarize the evolution law,we reduced the process of low flow in Autumn 2016 by water balance method and the hydrograph curve. The results show that a smaller natural flow and joint impoundment of reservoir group were the main causes leading to the serious low water level in the middle and lower Yangtze River and the two lakes. In 2020,with more reservoirs being put into operation,the impact of reservoir impoundment after flood season on low water regime of middle and lower Yangtze River would keep enlarging and become normal. To solve this problem,further research including the medium and long term hydrological forecasting technology and reservoir group joint impounding scheme are discussed.
作者
冯宝飞
张涛
曾明
FENG Baofei, ZHANG Tao, ZENG Ming(Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, Chin)
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2018年第11期9-13,共5页
Yangtze River
基金
国家重点研发计划项目"水资源高效开发利用"(2017YFC0405406)
关键词
枯水
水库调度
中长期水文预报
水库群联合蓄水
长江中下游
2016年洪水
low water
reservoir regulation
medium and long term hydrological forecast
joint impoundment of reservoir group
middle and lower Yangtze River
2016 flooding