摘要
采用大数据分析的方法,对近十年在欧洲车身会议上获奖车型的车身用材进行了详细地分析,推断和预测了以＂人＂为主的驾驶方式下,汽车车身用钢的发展趋势：无论是传统燃油动力车还是新能源汽车,汽车用高强钢因其兼顾了成本、安全、轻量化、易维修、绿色环保等优点,仍将是最适合用在汽车车身上的材料,而铝合金、镁合金和碳纤维则是其重要的补充;从2009—2017年ECB获奖车型的用材来看,钢、铝是周期性的变化,并且呈跷跷板关系;对于钢的具体品种而言,先进高强钢和热成形用钢一直是稳步增长的趋势,其中先进高强钢增幅略大于热成形用钢;对于钢中的软钢和普通高强钢,呈现弱周期性趋势,而2016、2017年的增长来自于铝板、铝挤压件的下降;在驾驶方式未发生重大变化之前,未来汽车车身用材仍将维持周期性变化,但变化周期缩短、变化幅度降低,汽车车身用钢量可能将维持在70%左右的动态平衡点。
The car body materials for awarded models in Euro Car Body（ ECB） Conference in recent ten years were analyzed by big data analysis in detail,and the development trends for car body steels were deduced and predicted under the＂human＂driving mode. However,high strength automotive steel is still the most suitable car body materials in the traditional fossil-fueled vehicles and new energy vehicles due to the advantages of lower cost,higher safety,light weight,easy maintenance and environmental friendliness,and aluminum alloy,magnesium alloy and carbon fibers are the most important supplemental materials. According to the car body materials of the 2009-2017 ECB awarded models,the steel and aluminum applications change cyclically,and a seesaw relationship is presented. For the specific types of steel,the application of advanced high strength steel and hot forming steel keep increasing steadily,and the increase of the former is slightly bigger than that of the latter. In contrast,the applications of ordinary mild steel and high strength steel show a weak cyclical trend,and the increase trend in 2016 and 2017 results from the reduction of aluminum sheets and aluminum extrusion parts. Thus,before a major change in the way of driving,the future car body materials continue to change cyclically,but the change cycle is shorten and the variation amplitude is weaken. The usage of car body steels might remain at a dynamic balance ratio of about 70%.
作者
蒋浩民
陈新平
蔡宁
朱晓东
鲍平
Jiang Haomin;Chen Xinping;Cai Ning;Zhu Xiaodong;Bao Ping(Baoshan Iron ＆ Steel Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 201900,China;State Key Laboratory of Development and Applicaton Technology of Automotive Steels（Baosteel）,Shanghai 201900,China)
出处
《锻压技术》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第7期56-61,共6页
Forging & Stamping Technology
关键词
车身用钢
高强钢
大数据分析
AL合金
MG合金
car body steels
high strength steel
big data analysis
aluminum alloy
magnesium alloy
