摘要
本文在测算"一带一路"沿线国家1995—2015年全球价值链嵌入度和产业结构水平的基础上,运用面板数据回归的固定效应与2SLS方法、PCSE方法和时间序列数据处理的异方差自相关稳健的Newey-West方法,从沿线国家整体、划分四个区域和单独每个国家三个层面,探讨融入全球价值链能否促进产业结构升级。研究结果表明:从"一带一路"沿线国家整体层面来看,融入全球价值链并不能促进产业结构升级;分区域来看,仅中国所属的东亚、东南亚区域融入全球价值链能促进产业结构升级,其他三个区域都不能;具体到每个国家,"一带一路"沿线有8个国家融入全球价值链能显著地促进产业结构升级,10个国家不能,其余国家融入全球价值链对产业结构升级的作用则不显著。
Based on the calculation of the embedding degree of global value chain and the industrial structure level of countries along ＂Belt and Road＂ from 1995 to 2015, using the fixed effect model, the 2SLS method, the PCSE method of panel data regression and the heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust New- ey-West method, this paper explores whether integration into global value chain can promote the upgrading of industrial structure with regard to the ＂Belt and Road＂ countries, the four regions and each country separately. The research re- suits show that integrating into global value chain cannot promote the upgrading of industrial structure with regard to all of the countries along the ＂Belt and Road＂ area. With respect to the four regions, the only region where integration into global value chain can promote the upgrading of industrial structure is East and Southeast Asia, where China belongs to; the other three regions fail to show any promotion. There are, however, eight individual countries where integration into global value chain is shown to significantly promote the upgrading of industrial structure while ten countries show no significant promotion. The results of the remaining countries have little significance.
作者
马晓东
何伦志
MA Xiaodong;HE Lunzhi
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第7期95-107,共13页
Journal of International Trade
基金
新疆人文社会科学重点研究基地新疆宏观经济预警系统研究基地项目"‘一带一路’沿线国家产业结构比较研究"(XJEDU010616C03)
新疆大学世川良一优秀研究生科研资助项目"基于空间计量经济学模型的‘一带一路’沿线国家经济增长分析"(XJU-SYLLF15005)
