摘要
现有的日变交通分配模型多数是以路径变量为研究对象,其主要有初始路径流量不唯一和忽略了路径之间的相关性等问题;而以路段为研究对象的日变交通分配模型虽然克服了上述不足,但其有限理性仅体现在出行者对最短路成本的认知上,本质上还是基于确定环境下的客观旅行时间进行决策,无法描述出行者在不确定环境下的风险态度和心理特征。基于此,在累计前景理论的框架下,构建了一个以路段变量为研究对象的日变交通分配模型,该模型克服了路径模型的两大缺陷,能够表征有限理性的出行者在不确定风险环境中的决策行为以及面对风险时的主观心理特征。最后,本研究通过一个算例讨论了有限理性、日变模型演化步长和损失规避系数对流量变化的影响,结果表明出行者的有限理性行为会增加路网上流量的波动性,这说明交通管理者应采用相关技术和方法减少出行者的有限理性行为,以达到减缓流量波动的目的。对于流量逐日演化步长和损失规避系数等参数而言,其取值越大,流量波动性也会相应增加,因此,在交通实践中,有必要对参数进行合理调控,如考虑一定程度的出行习惯,适当增加出行者对交通系统的敏感性等,从而减少旅行成本。
Most of existing researches on the day-to-day traffic assignment model are based on path variable,which have the problems of the non-uniqueness of initial path flow and ignoring the relevance between paths,while the model based on link variable overcome the two shortcomings,but its bounded rationality is only reflected in the cost perception of the shortest path about travelers,essentially,its decision-making is based on the objective travel time under the certain environment,which cannot describe the travelers＇ risk attitude and psychological characteristics in an uncertain environment. In view of this,a day-to-day traffic assignment model based on the link variable in the framework of cumulative prospective theory is proposed,which can overcome the 2 shortcomings of the path model and can describe the behaviors of decision makers who can express bounded rationality in uncertain risk environment and the subjective psychological characteristics in face of risk. Finally,the influence of bounded rationality,day-to-day model step size and loss aversion coefficient on flow fluctuation are studied by a numerical example,the result shows that（1） the travelers＇ bounded rationality behavior will increase the flow fluctuation,that is to say,to achieve the goal of reducingthe fluctuation of link flow,traffic manager should take the concerned techniques and methods to decrease the travelers＇ bounded rationality behavior;（2） as for the step size of day-to-day traffic flow evolution and the loss aversion coefficient,the larger parameters will also increase fluctuation,so it is necessary to reasonable control the model parameters to reduce the cost of traveling in practice,such as considering the travel habit to some extent,increasing the sensitivity of travelers to traffic system and so on.
作者
张玺
赵新朋
杨达
刘思婧
蒲云
ZHANG Xi;ZHAO Xin-peng;YANG Da;LIU Si-jing;PU Yun(School of Traffic and Transportation, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China;School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu Siehuan 610031, China)
出处
《公路交通科技》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第7期93-99,共7页
Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51278429
51408509
71603219
71703219)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2682016CX046
2682016CX051)
关键词
交通工程
交通分配
有限理性
路段变量
逐日动态
traffic engineering
traffic assignment
bounded rationality
link variable
day-to-day dynamics
