摘要
针对气候变化对社会稳定性的影响,综合利用多元线性回归、灰色预测、K-means算法等方法,讨论了脆弱国家指数(简称FSI)的衡量标准、气温降水量对FSI的直接间接影响、国家的脆弱性临界点、国家干预成本等问题.研究表明:12项指标与FSI均正相关,一国干预其气候变化所造成的国家脆弱成本取决于国家所处的脆弱程度.最后利用示例,验证了所得结果的正确性.
By using multiple linear regression,grey prediction and K-means algorithm,the measurement criteria of FSI,the direct and indirect effects of temperature and precipitation on FSI,the critical point of national vulnerability,and the cost of state intervention are discussed in this paper. The study shows that the 12 indicators are positively related to the FSI,and the country＇s vulnerability to the vulnerability of a country＇s climate change depends on the vulnerability of the country. At last,the correctness of the results is verified by the example.
作者
顾铭轩
GU Ming-xuan(School of Finance,Anhui Finance and Economics University,Bengbu 233030,Chin)
出处
《兰州工业学院学报》
2018年第3期73-78,共6页
Journal of Lanzhou Institute of Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金(11601001)
安徽省教育厅教研基金(2016ckjh007)
关键词
气候变化
社会稳定性
多元线性回归
灰色预测分析
climate chasnge
social stability
multiple linear regression pricing model
grey prediction analysis
