摘要
通过构建土地生态安全预警评价指标体系,运用情景分析法设置了人口增长、资源利用、经济发展和环境保护4种情景模式,对深圳市土地生态安全状况进行了模拟和预测。结果表明：2006—2015年深圳市土地生态安全得分在0.308 7-0.571 4波动,警情等级主要是中警和重警;在人口增长、资源利用、经济发展和环境保护4种情景下,2016—2020年土地生态安全值在0.186 6-0.538 9波动,均处于有警状态,且以重警为主。资源利用和经济发展情景对深圳土地生态安全影响显著。土地生态安全调控模式为资源利用模式和经济发展模式,可通过调整、改进资源利用和经济发展方式来实现对土地生态安全的维护和改善。
The purpose of the paper is to perform and present an evaluation of the land ecological security so as to give suggestions to the protection of land ecological security in the metropolis by setting a regulation model and offering the corresponding regulation directions,when taking into account the importance of the land ecological security and the ecological civilization. For the above said purpose,we have made a scenario simulation in the procedure of the land ecological security evaluation with the methods of entropy and comprehensive index. In doing so,we have set up a 4 scenario model,that is,the model including the population growth,the resource utilization,the economic growth and the environment protection in hoping to forecast the land ecological security status-in-situ based on the indicator system of such kinds of evaluation. As a result,it has been found that： the score of the land ecological security in Shenzhen fluctuates between 0. 308 7 and 0. 571 4 in 2006 to 2015,the urgent land-use situations can mainly be categorized into ＂middle alarming＂and ＂heavy alarming＂,whereas the urgent situation should be categorized mainly into ＂the heavy alarming level ＂ from 2016 to 2020,with the score of land ecological security in Shenzhen fluctuating between0. 186 6 and 0. 538 9,under the alarming situation of the population growth and economic growth with the expanding consumption in energy resources. Therefore,through the comparison of the above 4 scenario model and the average changing model,it can be found that the resources utilization and economic growth can have an obvious impact on the score of the land ecological security. And,alternatively,under the two sides of the scenario model,the score of the land ecological security tends to fluctuate promptly,which implies that the land use security situation has been getting worse and worse. However,it has been made possible for the land ecological security state to keep stable under the population growth and the regular environment protection effor
作者
熊建华
唐将伟
XIONG Jian-hua;TANG Jiang-wei(School of Public Administration and Policy, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第3期1215-1219,共5页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目(18XNH017)
关键词
环境学
情景分析法
土地生态安全
预警
调控模式
environmentalology
scenario analysis method
land ecological security
early-warning
regulation
