摘要
为了保证工艺过程的安全性,工程师们使用多种定量风险评价方法对整个过程进行评估。但定量风险评价方法无法随着化工工艺寿命周期的进行而实时更新数据。基于南京化工园区某公司环氧乙烷存储装置,借助@Risk软件,分别应用确定性概率方法和不确定性概率分布方法对装置进行了风险概率分析。在此基础上,应用贝叶斯理论更新概率分布参数,基于设定的事件累积次数对环氧乙烷存储装置进行了动态风险评估。结果表明,24个终态事件的发生概率是变化的,装置整体的安全状态概率随着运行时间的推移而减小,并逐渐趋近0.612 86,事故概率减小,并逐渐趋近0.023 72,未遂事件概率增加,并逐渐趋近0.334 57。通过Origin拟合得到的事故概率和未遂事件概率函数与海因里希法较为吻合。
This paper is aimed at providing some assistance for forecasting and preventing industrial accidents by using the probabilistic risk analysis method. As is well known,with the prolonging of the chemical life cycle and such processes,it has become no more possible to update the data merely on reliance of most real-time quantitative risk assessments,which makes it of great urgency to study the storage unit method of Ethylene oxide. The said storage unit method to be introduced in this paper is supposed to be made up of 9 safety barriers in the Dynamic Chemistry（ Nanjing）. According to the method,the risk of storage unit can be analyzed by using a software of @ Risk through Monte Carlo Simulation in the deterministic approach and some uncertain approaches of the probability density distribution function,which helps to identify and make better known the consistency of the two kinds of probability. And,then,the distribution parameters can be updated with the Bayesian Theory based on the cumulative numbers of 24 end-states in 1-20 operating periods which are supposed based on the fieldwork and experience of the operators of the safety barriers. In so doing,it canbe found that the probabilities of 24 end-states are in a state of changing and updating as the storage process goes on. On the other hand,the safety probability and the accident probability of the storage unit can both be made decreasing whereas the probability of the near-miss events keeps increasing. And,finally,we have brought about a softwarenamed Origin to fit effectively the three changing curves and the three quantitative fitting equations. The three fitting curves can be made gradually near to 0. 612 86,0. 023 72 and 0. 334 57 respectively and well matched to the actual situations. Thus,it proves that the accident probability should be consistent with the ‘Bathtub curve＇and the ratio of the accident probability lines,as well as the near-miss events probability series in accordance with Heinrich＇s Law. Thus,the results of the aforementioned pr
作者
徐寒
蒋军成
颜雯钰
薛妮
XU Han;JIANG Jun-cheng;YAN Wen-yu;XUE Ni(Nanjing Tech University Safety Engineering, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Urban and Industrial Safety, Nanjing 210009, China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第3期888-894,共7页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(21436006)
关键词
安全工程
贝叶斯理论
环氧乙烷
寿命周期
动态风险分析
safety engineering
Bayesian theory
ethylene oxide
lifecycle
dynamic risk assessment
