摘要
为了保证产品质量、降低生产成本,许多农副产品制造商选择自己种植原材料以满足农副产品的加工生产。然而,农作物的产出易受不利事件（如各种自然灾害）的影响而具有不确定性。这种不确定性可能导致最终产品产出不足,严重时甚至引发财务危机。为了应对潜在风险,农副产品制造商可向金融机构购买商业保险。本文建立了单周期农副产品制造商的计划产量决策模型,通过研究制造商购买商业保险的边界条件及最优商业保险策略,分析商业保险策略在制造商规避原材料产出不确定风险时所具有的价值。研究结果表明：（1）只有保费的安全因子低于外部融资的单位惩罚成本时,制造商才会购买商业保险;（2）最优商业保险策略与计划产量无关;（3）最终产品单位净收益越低,商业保险的价值反而越高。
In the modern farm and sideline products processing industry,as a production model,manufacturers tend to grow raw materials themselves to meet the needs of production.This production model is not only beneficial for enterprises to better control the final product quality,but also can effectively reduce the production costs.And yet,there is an indisputable fact that the yield of crops is susceptible to adverse events（such as natural disasters）,resulting in uncertainty of production.This uncertainty can lead to a heavy shortage of final product output,and even develop financial crisis if it is getting serious enough.In response to potential risks,farm and sideline products manufacturers may purchase business insurance from financial institutions.However,the purchase of business insurance requires a certain amount of premium to be paid in advance.The premium should be a sunk cost to the enterprise concerned if there would be no adverse events during the whole planting period of crops.In view of the huge economic losses from sunk cost and little probability of adverse events,there emerges a crucial theme of production and operation management for boththe theoretical and practical circles to deal with;namely,whether or not manufacturers should avoid farm and sideline products raw materials yield uncertainty risks by means of purchasing business insurance,and,if purchasing,how for the manufacturers to establish the optimal strategy of business insurance.Firstly in this paper,a single-period decision model is built up for farm and sideline products manufacturer＇s production planning yield.Based on the model,the influence of business insurance strategy on decisions of manufacturer＇s planning yield,and on expected profits as well,are analyzed respectively.In comparative studies,the boundary conditions and the optimal business insurance strategies in favor of manufacturers are explored to purchase the kind of insurance,and then the value of business insurance strategy is analyzed by means of which manufacturers avo
作者
陈静
陈敬贤
魏航
CHEN Jing;CHEN Jing-xian;WEI Hang(School of Business Administration, Shandong Technology and Business University, Yantai 264005, China;School of Business, Nantong University, Nantong 226019, China;School of International Business Administration, Shanghai University of Finance ＆ Economics, Shanghai 200433 ,China)
出处
《中国管理科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第6期39-50,共12页
Chinese Journal of Management Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71401082,71272016)
教育部人文社会科学基金资助项目(14YJC630009)
关键词
原材料产出不确定
商业保险策略
风险规避
计划产量决策
农副产品生产
yield uncertainty of raw materials
business insurance strategy
risk aversion
production planning decision
production of farm and sideline products
