摘要
本文首先确定合理的评价指标体系,然后建立总和生育率测算模型、灰色人口预测模型GM(1,1),结合队列要素法和年龄移算法对全面二胎政策实施前后中国人口以及老龄化趋势进行预测,并对下一步二胎政策的调整提出建议。
Firstly, we determined the reasonable evaluation index system, and then established the Total Fertility Rate model, grey prediction model GM（ 1, 1）, combined with the population Cohort Component Method and age shift algorithm, we predict the population and aging trend in China before and after the implementation of the comprehensive two child policy, and put forward suggestions for the adjustment of the next step.
作者
张礼乐
黄倩茹
张敏可
ZHANG Li- yue;HUANG Qian- ru;ZHANG Min- ke(School of mathematics ＆ statistics, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, Anhui,241000, China)
出处
《科技视界》
2018年第9期194-196,共3页
Science & Technology Vision
基金
安徽师范大学大学生创新创业训练计划项目资助:2017年国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(15111202068)
