摘要
由于受到供需、政策、流通等多重因素的影响,我国小麦价格呈现典型非线性特点,尤其在2017年夏季我国小麦价格出现了大幅回落,对种植农户和粮食安全造成了一定影响。本文分析了近些年我国小麦市场价格波动的原因,并采用一种自适应粒子群算法（APSO）优化的支持向量回归（SVR）模型来预测我国小麦价格。结果表明：因受小麦市场供需形势以及政策重心下移的影响,我国小麦价格短期内不会重回高位,近一年内走势会呈现先降后升的趋势,预计2018年中期会达到最低峰,后期小麦价格虽稳中上涨,但整体价格稳中偏弱,全面回暖的压力较大,缺乏利好因素的支撑。
Due to multiple factors such as supply and demand, policies, and trade,China＇s wheat prices are typically non-linear, especially in the summer of 2017, China＇s wheat prices have dropped significantly, which has a certain impact on farmers and food security. In this paper, we analyzes the causes of price fluctuations and use an APSO-SVR model to predict the price of wheat in China. The results show that on the one hand, the uncertain supply and demand situation in the wheat market, on the other hand the focus of government policy moves down, China＇s wheat prices will not return to high levels in the short term, and the trend will show a downward trend in the near one year.In June 2018, it will reach the lowest peak. Although the price of wheat in the latter period will rise steadily, the overall price will remain stable and weak, the overall warming pressure has been greater. It lacks the support of favorable factors.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第3期107-110,共4页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
国家社科基金项目(编号:17bjl066)“我国粮食主产区粮食安全与生态安全的包容性研究”阶段性研究成果
