摘要
文章基于2001-2016年中国互联网和物流产业相关数据,通过构建双对数模型和VAR时间序列模型,并对物流产业进行脉冲响应、方差分解分析得出互联网对物流产业的动态影响。其结果显示:互联网指数每提高1%,社会物流总收入就增加0.359%,物流管理费用就能减少0.787%;互联网对物流收入的方差贡献高达40%,对降低管理费用的贡献高达30%。最后提出物流产业的发展战略,为物流业的转型升级提供一些建议。
Based on the data of Chinese Internet and logistics industry from 2001 to 2016,this paper establishes double logarithmic model and VAR time series model,and analyzes the dynamic impact of the internet on the logistics industry by performing impulse response and variance decomposition analysis of the logistics industry.The results show that：the internet＇s contribution to logistics revenue is as high as 40%,and its contribution to lowering management costs is as high as 30%.For every 1%increase in the Internet Index,total social logistics revenue increases by 0.359%,and logistics management costs can be reduced by 0.787%.Finally,the development strategy of the logistics industry is proposed to provide some suggestions for the transformation and upgrading of the logistics industry.
作者
廖云福
LIAO YunJu(College of Information Management, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China)
出处
《无锡职业技术学院学报》
2018年第3期64-68,共5页
Journal of Wuxi Institute of Technology
关键词
互联网
物流业
VAR模型
脉冲响应
方差分解
internet
logistics
VAR model
impulse response
variance decomposition
