摘要
非参数合成控制法是一种新颖的政策评估方法,已受到国内外学者的关注。本文以上海自贸试验区为案例,利用该方法实证研究了自贸政策的引资动态效应。非参数合成控制法的估计结果显示,2013-2015年间,自贸试验区政策让上海市外商直接投资存量累积增加2052.6亿元,平均每年的溢出额为684.2亿元,年均溢出率约为14.2%;上海市外商直接投资流量累积增加1330.6亿元,平均每年的溢出额为443.5亿,年均溢出率约为116.2%。上海自贸政策引资动态效应显示,外商在政策试点初期直接投资规模较小,在政策试点后期直接投资规模不断增大,外资对中国设立自贸试验区反应谨慎。合成控制法和双重差分法等一系列稳健性检验表明,自贸试验区政策对地区吸引外资具有正向溢出效应,实证结论具有稳健性。
The nonparametric synthetic control method is a novel policy evaluation method,w hich has attracted the attention of scholars at home and abroad. Taking the Shanghai pilot free trade zone as a case,this paper uses the method to study the dynamic impact of FTZ policy on attracting FDI. The results show that as a result of the FTZ pilot policyin 2013-2015,the stock of FDI in Shanghai increased by 205. 26 billion Yuan,the average annual spillover amount is 68. 42 billion Yuan,the annual average spillover rate is about 14. 2%,and the flow of FDI in Shanghai increased by 133. 06 billion Yuan,the average annual spillover amount is 44. 35 billion Yuan,the annual average spillover rate is about 116. 2%. The dynamic effect of Shanghai' s FTZ policy show s that the inflow scale of FDI is smaller in the early stage and bigger in the later period,w hich demonstrates a fact that the foreign investors are cautious to China's FTZ policy. Other robust tests,such as the synthetic control method and the difference-in-difference method w ere used,and both estimated results show that the Shanghai ' s FTZ policy has a positive spillover effect on attracting FDI.
出处
《亚太经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第3期112-120,151-152,共9页
Asia-Pacific Economic Review
