摘要
金融杠杆的广泛应用是房地产行业的基本特征,要兼顾促增长和稳房价,房地产调控面临很大挑战。为此,本文建立一个带有房地产市场的多部门DSGE模型,同时引入受信贷约束的购房者和房地产开发商,研究和比较房地产调控中两类金融杠杆(按揭贷款抵押和开发贷款抵押)的传导机制、最优政策规则及社会福利效应。研究显示:(1)下调按揭贷款杠杆会带来房地产量价齐跌,而下调开发贷款杠杆则会导致房地产量降价升;(2)从短期来看,需求冲击下按揭贷款杠杆政策更优,供给冲击下开发贷款杠杆政策更优;(3)从长期来看,开发贷款杠杆政策带来的福利改善优于按揭贷款杠杆政策,特别是在需求冲击下按揭贷款杠杆政策将面临稳定房价和改善民生的两难选择。
The widespread application of financial leverage is the basic characteristic in the real estate industry. In order to promote growth and stabilize housing prices at the same time,the government faces great challenges in real estate regulation.Therefore,this paper develops a multisector DSGE model with a housing market,credit-constrained buyers and real estate developers to compare the transmission mechanism,optimal policy rules and welfare effect of two loan-to-value policies： housing mortgage loan-to-value（ HMLTV） and real estate development loan-to-value（ RRDLTV）.Our results suggest：（ 1） cutting HMLTV reduces both house sales and prices,while cutting RRDLTV reduces house sales but raises house price;（ 2） in the short run,HMLTV performs better than RRDLTV under demand shocks,while RRDLTV performs better than HMLTV under supply shocks;（ 3） in the long run,RRDLTV improves welfare better than HMLTV under both demand and supply shocks. In particular,under demand shocks,the government faces a dilemma between house price stability and social welfare when using HMLTV.
作者
张婧屹
李建强
Zhang Jingyi;Li Jianqiang(Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, Shanghai Jiao Tong University;Financial Research Institute, People＇s Bank of China)
出处
《经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第3期13-30,共18页
Economic Review
基金
第55批博士后基金面上项目"经济转型期下人口结构
居民消费与财政政策研究"(项目编号:2014M550666)的资助
关键词
房地产
金融杠杆
社会福利
最优政策规则
Real Estate
Financial Leverage
Social Welfare
Optimal Policy Rules
